IRA and 401k Accounts Can Earn You 30% More After 40 Years

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We’re all told that we should use IRA and 401k accounts to save for retirement due to their great tax benefits. But how valuable exactly are those benefits? 🤔 A huge difference? A little difference? This Morningstar article crunches some numbers for “traditional” pre-tax IRA/401ks within a broadly-representative tax situation and three example portfolios. (Although the benefits should be basically the same for Roth accounts, as they end up assuming the same tax rate during the working and retirement years.)

A one-time $5,000 contribution (pre-tax) is invested for 40 years within both the tax-deferred IRA/401k and a taxable brokerage account. The three example portfolios are “100% zero-dividend stocks”, “100% stock index”, and “60% stocks/40% bonds balanced” – essentially most to least tax-efficient. All are assumed to return 8% annually. Here are the results:

Here is the conclusion, quoted directly from the article:

To address this article’s original question, for investments made over a full working career, from age 25 to 65, IRA/401(k) accounts improve the final aftertax value of the study’s assets by 17% for a no-dividend portfolio, 30% for a stock market index fund, and 44% for a low-turnover balanced fund. Those figures, of course, will vary according to personal circumstances, but I conducted enough offscreen spreadsheet tests, using different tax brackets, to conclude that they are broadly representative.

As you might expect, the advantage is greater when the portfolio is less tax-efficient. The more something spins off dividends, capital gains, or interest, the more it should try to go in the tax-deferred bucket.

If you assume the use of the most popular target date retirement funds, they are 90% to 100% stock market index for the majority of the working years (25-65). So there you have it. A 30% boost is a reasonable estimate for most people to carry around in their heads. Roughly 1/3rd more. That’s a lot!

In short, IRA/401(k) plans are a very good deal. And should the latter offer a company match, they become a truly great deal.

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Robinhood Gold Review: 1% Deposit Boost Ends 11/25/24

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Update October 2024: Well, that didn’t last very long. Right as competitors rush to copy the feature, Robinhood sends me a message that the last day to get your 1% Deposit Boost is November 25, 2024.

Update June 2024: The 1% Deposit Boost for Robinhood Gold subscribers is now live. As previously announced, the 1% boost is paid out gradually over 24 months on net new deposits. If you make future withdrawals, this may affect your unpaid boosts. If you were already paid a boost payment, it may affect the boost on future deposits. In other words, they are paying attention and it’s not simple to game by withdrawing your cash. You can find additional details on this FAQ page. The following deposits are eligible:

Standard bank account transfers (originated ACH)
Wires in
Direct deposit (non-originated ACH)
Debit card transfers (including Apple Pay)
Request for Payment (ex. Zelle or PayPal transfer)
Transfers from spending account
Transfers from IRA account

I tested it out with a $500 deposit with a debit card transfer via Apple Pay (for another 1%*). Hello, $0.21 a month! 💰 Here’s a screenshot. I’m already locked into a Robinhood relationship for 5 years with the expired IRA promo, so I will try to see how to best utilize this promo for the next 3 years.

(* Debit card deposit side note: I also stacked it with by making the deposit with Apple Pay linked to my 1% cash back debit card from Upgrade. This way, I’ll get another 1% on the $500. Now, this method should be used carefully and for deposits that you intend to invest at Robinhood, as I’ve read reports of Robinhood freezing accounts if this option is abused by depositing and immediately withdrawing. This works for me because I plan to invest smaller deposits there for 24 months to get the Robinhood 1% match anyway. Besides Upgrade, a few other places offer 1% cash back on debit card purchases, but Upgrade is also offering a $300 bonus which is noteworthy even if it is a fintech.)

Full review:

Robinhood recently held a Steve Jobs-esque product announcement about new upcoming features for their Robinhood Gold paid membership tier ($5 a month or $50 per year upfront). Here are the highlights of the new features:

  • 1% match on all deposits. Called “Unlimited Deposit Boost”, Gold members will get a 1% match on all incoming deposits. For example, if you transfer $500 every month to invest at Robinhood, they will give you an extra $5 a month to invest. If you transfer in $100,000, they will give you $1,000. Doled out over a 2-year period if you keep your deposits there during that time.
  • 3% cash back on all categories with their new credit card. Redeems directly into a Robinhood account. Can create virtual numbers and extra cards for family members. No annual fee, but does require Gold membership.
  • New customizable user interface. One of Robinhood’s strengths has always been it’s modern user interface. That’s always been countered by their fintech-average level of customer service.

Here are the existing Robinhood Gold features:

  • 5% APY on cash sweep deposits. (1.5% APY without Gold until May 2024, then 0.01% APY after that.)
  • $1,000 in free margin ($2,000 until 8/18/24).
  • 3% match on annual IRA contributions. (1% match without Gold.) 5-year lock-up period. This is meant to be a recurring thing. See FAQ for details.
  • 3% match on incoming IRA transfers and rollover amounts (ended 4/30/24). This WAS a limited-time offer and potentially huge for those with big IRAs. 5-year lock-up period. See link for details.
  • Bigger instant deposits. Instant Deposit eliminates the three-day wait period for funds to transfer from your bank into Robinhood. With Gold, customers can get larger Instant Deposits of up to $50,000 depending on their brokerage account balance and status.
  • Free premium stock reports from Morningstar. Gold members get unlimited access to Morningstar’s stock research reports. These reports are available for approximately 1,700 stocks and are updated frequently to reflect important company events.
  • Level II market data from Nasdaq. Level II market data shows multiple bid and ask prices from Nasdaq for any given security so investors can better determine the availability or desire for a security at a certain price.

The hottest deal WAS the 3% match on incoming 401k rollovers and IRA transfers. I participated for an $8,000+ payout and am now stuck in its 5-year lock-up period. They’ve added billions of new assets with this promotion.

The second hottest deal is the new 1% unlimited deposit match, doled out over a 2-year period. I find it a very clever way to keep customers locked-into their Robinhood accounts AND keep them paying for a Robinhood Gold subscription. Don’t be surprised if the price of Gold goes up within the next year or so!

Deposit boost is divided into 24 monthly payouts. To earn your full boost, hold or invest your brokerage deposits for 2 years. If you cancel Gold, you’ll lose future payouts you haven’t earned yet.

The third hottest deal is the 3% cash back credit card, even though the credit card is getting the most press attention. 3% cash back with no annual fee is certainly noteworthy, but the card also doesn’t have an upfront sign-up bonus (and technically requires Gold at $50/$60 a year). If you currently have a 2% cash back card and spend even $50,000 a year on your credit card, 1% more is only $500 a year in extra cash back.

Meanwhile, I don’t spend that much on any single card (due to other better promos that will earn me $500+ upfront and the equivalent of more than 3% back) and I already get 2.6% back from my Bank of America credit card with Preferred Rewards. I like the idea of simple 3% cash back, but not quite worth a credit pull for me (we’ll see how long it lasts, since 3% has historically been too high to last).

If you are one of the first 5,000 people to refer 10 people to Robinhood Gold, apparently they will send you a credit card made of actual gold. After reading the terms closely, even if I do get enough referrals for the “Solid Gold” card, I’ll get a 1099 for over $1,000. If they run out of Gold cards, you just get the cash, but there doesn’t seem to be an option to simply decline and opt for the cash. I’m not interested in paying $400 in taxes for a gaudy 10 karat credit card.

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SoFi Invest: 1% Match on Recurring Deposits to Brokerage or IRA

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SoFi Plus is now offering an unlimited 1% match on all recurring SoFi Invest deposits. This includes their self-directed “active” or robo-advisor “automated” accounts. There is a two-year minimum hold requirement. Both taxable brokerage and IRAs are eligible, and this benefit may be stacked the with SoFi Invest 1% match on IRA contributions.

You must be a member of SoFi Plus, their premium status that requires opening both a SoFi Checking and Savings account and then setting up a monthly direct deposit into either account. However, that direct deposit can be any amount, as little as $1.

New to SoFi? Take advantage of the following sign-up bonuses first:

  • SoFi Checking Referral Offer: Up to $325 new user bonus. Open a new SoFi Money account and add at least $10 to your account within 5 days, and get $25. Then get up to $300 additional bonus with qualifying direct deposit. Plus up to 4.30% APY.
  • SoFi Invest Referral Offer: $25 new user bonus. Brokerage account. Open an Active Investing account with $10 or more, and you’ll get $25 in stock.

After you have your accounts set up and have qualified for SoFi Plus status (it’ll show in your app after the direct deposit posts), here is how to set up a recurring deposit per their FAQ:

There are two ways to set up a recurring deposit:

1. Set up a weekly, biweekly, or monthly ACH transfer into your SoFi Invest® account. You can do this by adding cash to your Invest account and changing the frequency from “one-time, today” to recurring on a weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly cadence.

2. If you have Autopilot through a SoFi Checking & Savings account from SoFi Bank, N.A, you can use it to set up a recurring deposit into your Automated Invest (SoFi Wealth, LLC ) account. Afterwards, click the “Set up Autopilot” button to start your recurring investment. Next, select the dollar amount or percentage you want to invest from each paycheck, and we’ll automatically transfer it into your new account.

Remember that you get the match for the deposit of funds, and it must stay there for 2 years or they’ll try to claw it back. You’ll have to invest it separately by making a trade.

The 1% match is technically paid out in SoFi rewards points (1 point = $0.01), but you can set it to auto-convert to cash into a designated SoFi account every month (that’s what I do). The match will be paid out within two weeks of the end of each calendar month.

This is structured very similarly to Robinhood’s “1% Deposit Boost”, down to the 2-year hold period. You don’t need a checking account or direct deposit at Robinhood, but it does require an active Robinhood Gold subscription at $5 per month ($60 a year).

Here are more details on other SoFi promotions, including their 2.2% cash back credit card and $300 Personal Loan bonus.

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SoFi Invest: 1% IRA Match on Both 401k Rollovers and Contributions

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Updated October 2024. SoFi Invest has brought back their an uncapped 1% match on 401k-to-IRA rollovers ($20,000 minimum). It looks like this is meant as a semi-permanent addition to their 1% IRA contribution match, as there is no expiration date. There is a 2-year required hold period. Both new and existing SoFi IRA accountholders IRAs are eligible. For folks with big 401ks still sitting around at their old employers, this could be a very significant bonus. A $75,000 401(k) rollover would get you $750. A $300,000 401(k) rollover would get you $3,000.

Rollovers must be completed through Capitalize, which is a startup service that specializes in helping you rollover your assets; they’ll supposedly handle all the paperwork and phone calls. Here are the full terms and conditions.

401(k) Rollover Match: SoFi will match 1% of a customer’s 401(k) rollover of more than $20,000 into their newly opened SoFi IRA or existing SoFi IRA in good standing, facilitated via the Capitalize application (see Eligibility below), during the Offer Period. If a customer submits more than one rollover during the same month, the sum of the rollovers must be more than $20,000 to be eligible for the match. The rollover funds must be maintained in the IRA for two (2) years. Bonuses will be paid within 60 days of the last day of the month in which the rollover funds settle in your SoFi IRA account.

Example: If you complete a $75,000 rollover with Capitalize to a SoFi IRA during the Offer Period, you will be matched 1%, equaling $750.

Payment/match will be deposited into the IRA that 401(k) assets are rolled into. The match is treated as interest earned and does not impact contribution limits.

For members with existing SoFi IRAs, a 401(k) rollover must be completed via Capitalize utilizing this link (and provide their SoFi IRA account number).

Robinhood has a larger 3% match on IRA contributions, but they no longer offer a match on 401(k) rollovers at all. You also don’t need to sign up for Robinhood Gold (at $5 a month) and the required minimum hold period for Robinhood was 5 years (while this one is only two years).

In contrast, this SoFi promo does not appear to cover IRA-to-IRA rollovers, only 401k-to-IRA rollovers. (It appears that 403b accounts are treated as equivalent to 401k account by Capitalize, but I could be wrong. I’d confirm with them directly.)

SoFi uses Apex Clearing for the their brokerage backend, which I am not super-excited about due to their history of late and corrected 1099s, but many other smaller brokers use them as well. FirsTrade, M1, Axos Invest, Stash, Public, and WeBull also use(d) Apex Clearing.

I’ve done several other SoFi offers in the past, and I’ve found them to be reliable in posting the bonuses. Here are some other SoFi offers:

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Should You Adjust Your Target Asset Allocation For Future Taxes?

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When you add up your assets and liabilities to come up with your net worth, do you adjust the numbers for taxes? The amounts in your Traditional 401ks and IRAs may be shrunk significantly upon eventual withdrawal due to income taxes. You never paid taxes on them upfront, so it makes sense that they are a bit “inflated” during your accumulation phase.

The academic paper Kentucky Windage for Asset Allocation by Jennings and Payne suggests that you should adjust your target asset allocation now in order to hit you goal more accurately in the end. This chart from the paper illustrates the potential effect of taxes on asset allocation:

“Kentucky windage” refers to the practice in shooting to aim upwind of the target in order to compensate for the effect of windage. For example, if the wind is blowing to the right, you’d aim a little left of the target.

For example, if your target is 60% stocks and 40% bonds but you have a lot of bonds being held in your traditional 401k, you should realize that will end up as 70/30 stocks/bonds after-taxes. Therefore, you should “aim” for 50/50 stocks/bonds, in order to truly end up at 60/40. Here’s another illustration from the paper:

Adjusting for taxes sounds like the proper thing to do, but I also found that their example of a 10% shift to be pretty extreme. The actual result is highly dependent on your specific asset class locations and tax brackets. Notice that the chart above assumed no tax hit on a “Stocks outside IRA” taxable account, but in reality there may be a lot of unrealized capital gains. For my own situation, I would estimate less than 5% in after-tax “drift”. Sure, I might still try to correct for that, but under 5% starts getting into noise territory. My target asset allocation may change independently over time for other reasons, or it might just change that much due to a stock market drop (or rise). But if your portfolio is heavily in pre-tax accounts, it’s something to consider.

Photo by Balint Mendlik on Unsplash

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How to Convert Vanguard Mutual Funds to Vanguard ETF Equivalents Online 2024

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Earlier this year, I discussed why I decided to convert my Vanguard mutual fund to ETFs. I don’t regret the decision, and some of those portable Vanguard ETFs later went to Robinhood for a $8,000 payday 💰 (that offer is back again this week…). At the time, the only way to convert was to call into Vanguard and listen to a lot of disclosures over the phone. As of late 2024, you can again convert Vanguard mutual funds to their ETF equivalent directly on the Vanguard.com brokerage website.

However, the feature is somewhat hidden, as a search for “convert mutual funds to ETF” does not come up with a useful answer, even those it comes up as a predicted search request:

Hopefully this quick how-to will spare you some wasted time. After you log in to your Vanguard account, look for the “Transact” menu option on the top search bar. See screenshot. After that, click on “Buy & Sell”. (It won’t show up as an option under the “Transact” option in other parts of the site.)

After that, you have to look for a smaller text link that says “Convert Vanguard mutual funds to ETFs”.

This should bring you finally to the main conversion page:

There are some disclosures; I have copied them below for reference. After that, you will locate the mutual funds you want to convert. The conversion should happen either same-day or next-day. Afterward, I would double-check to make sure your cost basis is carried over properly.

– Requests received prior to the New York Stock Exchange close (usually 4 PM EST) will be processed that day. Requests after this time will be processed the next trading day. Mutual Fund dividend payments at or near the time of conversion may delay the process.

– An ETF conversion is irreversible – Vanguard ETF shares cannot be converted back to Vanguard mutual fund shares. If you decide in the future to sell your Vanguard ETF shares in order to repurchase Vanguard mutual fund shares, that transaction could be taxable in a non-retirement account and fund minimums must be met.
Certain mutual fund account options will not apply or will need to be reestablished following the conversion (including some distribution and money transfer options).

– An ETF conversion will be processed based on the relative net asset values of the Vanguard mutual fund and the Vanguard ETF.

COST BASIS INFORMATION FOR NON-RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS:
– If you are not already locked into the average cost method by a sale, transfer, partial conversion or other disposition of your Vanguard mutual fund shares, we’ll have you revoke the average cost method for any eligible shares of Vanguard mutual funds and apply the First In First Out (FIFO) cost basis method prior to this conversion to the ETF share class.

– If you are already locked into the average cost method by a sale, transfer, partial conversion or other disposition of your Vanguard mutual fund shares, we’ll have you exit the average cost method for any eligible shares of Vanguard mutual funds and apply the FIFO cost basis method prior to this conversion to the ETF share class. This means share lots acquired prior to the conversion will be listed individually with the averaged cost.

– By clicking submit you agree to convert your mutual fund shares to the ETF share class and are instructing Vanguard to revoke your average cost election.

Here’s what is inside the “Learn More” link:

– Vanguard Brokerage is required to send you an ETF prospectus for each mutual fund converted to an ETF. The prospectuses will be sent according to your mailing preferences.

– There is no fee for Vanguard Brokerage clients to convert Vanguard mutual fund shares to Vanguard ETFs of the same holding.

– Vanguard will apply the IRS default method of FIFO to ETF holdings. With this method, the shares you bought first will automatically be the first shares relieved.

– If you are already invested in the ETF share class for the fund to which you are converting your mutual fund shares, and you have elected a cost basis method other than FIFO the shares you receive as result of this conversion will follow that election.
– If you are not already invested in the ETF share class for the fund to which you are converting, Vanguard will apply the default method of FIFO for new ETF shares you receive as a result of this conversion. You can select a different cost basis method after the conversion.

*Noncovered shares: The average cost method will carry over to the ETF for the non-covered shares, but you are free to report the shares using another method on your tax form. The cost basis of noncovered shares is sent to you for informational purposes only and will not be reported to the IRS by Vanguard. You are responsible for reporting the sale of noncovered shares.

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S&P 500 Return Components: P/E Ratio Expansion vs. Earnings Growth

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The S&P 500 has been on a great run recently, up around 30% over the last 12 months! Most of us are probably pretty satisfied with our brokerage accounts right now. (I know I am.) But where is it coming from? The total return of the S&P 500 can be broken down into three components:

Total Return = Earnings Growth + Dividend Yield ± P/E Multiple Changes

In other words, business profits could go up (or down), the dividends that get mailed out could go up or down, and how much investors are willing to pay for each bit of profit could change. This last one, the P/E “Multiple” is rather fickle, and P/E ratios can go up and down, but rarely stays highly elevated for extended periods of time.

Above is the historical S&P 500 P/E ratio chart from Multpl. The last time I wrote a post like this was when the screenshot said the P/E ratio rounded off to 35. Today it is 30. So the P/E ratio has been even higher in the recent past… but it also didn’t stay that high for very long.

Here is a very handy chart that breaks down the S&P 500 return over the last few years. Credit to @Sonusvarghese via Abnormal Returns.

The chart itself says “profit growth has been driving returns” and definitely that is true over the longer run, but it is also important to appreciate how much P/E ratio changes can affect future returns, even if profit growth continues. This is because the effect of P/E ratio doesn’t just go to zero when our collective optimism cools a bit – it has the same power in reverse.

Take all of 2024 year-to-date. Yes, profit growth added 11%, but multiple growth added 10%. The P/E ratio went from ~25 to ~30. If for the next 9 months, profits kept growing at the same positive pace, but the P/E ratio simply went back to where it was at the beginning of 2024, then your total return would be only 1% over that time period. The +10% boost comes back as a -10% haircut.

If for the next 9 months, profits kept steady, but the P/E ratio simply went back to where it was at the beginning of 2024, then your total return would be negative 10% over that time period.

Or the P/E ratio could zoom off to 35 again. Who knows. I’m not talking about market timing, and I remain a buy-and-hold investor that avoids daily market noise, but I do poke my head up once in a while. Mostly, I use these check-ins to stay calm when things get a little fizzy or a little panicky.

See also: S&P 500 Returns by Components 1900-2020

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Best Interest Rates on Cash Roundup – October 2024

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Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash as of October 2024, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. There are lesser-known opportunities available to individual investors, often earning more money while keeping the same level of safety by moving to another FDIC-insured bank or NCUA-insured credit union. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to see how much extra interest you could earn from switching. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 10/15/2024.

TL;DR: Rates are still dropping at all maturities, from savings accounts outward. Still some 5%+ savings accounts. Still some 4%+ APY 5-year CDs. Compare against Treasury bills and bonds at every maturity, taking into account state tax exemption. I no longer recommend fintech companies due to the possibility of loss due to poor recordkeeping and/or fraud.

High-yield savings accounts
Since the huge megabanks still pay essentially no interest, everyone should at least have a separate, no-fee online savings account to piggy-back onto your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I list the top rates as well as competitive rates from banks with a history of competitive rates and solid user experience. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • The top rates at the moment are from newcomers Pibank at 5.50% APY and TIMBR at 5.25% APY. I have no personal experience with either, but they are the top rates at the moment. Most others have dropped at least a little. For example, CIT Platinum Savings is now at 4.70% APY with $5,000+ balance.
  • SoFi Bank is at 4.30% APY + up to $325 new account bonus with direct deposit. You must maintain a direct deposit of any amount (even $1) each month for the higher APY. SoFi has historically competitive rates and full banking features. See details at $25 + $300 SoFi Money new account and deposit bonus.
  • Here is a limited survey of high-yield savings accounts. They aren’t the top rates, but a group that have historically kept it relatively competitive such that I like to track their history.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (plan to buy a house soon, just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. Marcus has a 7-month No Penalty CD at 4.20% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. Farmer’s Insurance FCU has 9-month No Penalty CD at 4.50% APY with a $1,000 minimum deposit. Consider opening multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Langley Federal Credit Union has a 10-month certificate special at 5.25% APY ($500 min, $50,000 max). This is a promo for new members only. Anyone can join this credit union nationwide; you must maintain $5 in their share savings account. Early withdrawal penalty is 90 days of interest.

Money market mutual funds
Many brokerage firms that pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). Note: Money market mutual funds are highly-regulated, but ultimately not FDIC-insured, so I would still stick with highly reputable firms.

  • Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) is the default sweep option for Vanguard brokerage accounts, which has an SEC yield of 4.80% (changes daily, but also works out to a compound yield of 4.91%, which is better for comparing against APY). Odds are this is much higher than your own broker’s default cash sweep interest rate.
  • Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX) is an alternative money market fund which you must manually purchase, but the interest will be mostly (80% for 2023 tax year) exempt from state and local income taxes because it comes from qualifying US government obligations. Current SEC yield of 4.86% (compound yield of 4.97%).

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks and are fully backed by the US government. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes, which can make a significant difference in your effective yield.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 10/15/24, a new 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.80% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.19% annualized interest.
  • The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) has a 5.08% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.10 years. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 4.85% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.08 years.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest. The annual purchase limit for electronic I bonds is $10,000 per Social Security Number, available online at TreasuryDirect.gov.

  • “I Bonds” bought between May 2024 and October 2024 will earn a 4.28% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More on Savings Bonds here.
  • In mid-October 2024, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. This is the mid-October post. I will have another post up at that time.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops which usually involve 10+ debit card purchases each cycle, a certain number of ACH/direct deposits, and/or a certain number of logins per month. If you make a mistake (or they judge that you did) you risk earning zero interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others would rather not bother. Rates can also drop suddenly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling.

  • OnPath Federal Credit Union (my review) pays 7.00% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, and login to online or mobile banking once per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization. You can also get a $100 Visa Reward card when you open a new account and make qualifying transactions.
  • Genisys Credit Union pays 6.75% APY on up to $7,500 if you make 10 debit card purchases of $5+ each per statement cycle, and opt into online statements. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization.
  • Credit Union of New Jersey pays 6.00% APY on up to $25,000 if you make 12 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, and make at least 1 direct deposit, online bill payment, or automatic payment (ACH) per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization.
  • Andrews Federal Credit Union pays 6.00% APY on up to $25,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, and make at least 1 direct deposit or ACH transaction per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization.
  • Pelican State Credit Union pays 6.05% APY on up to $20,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, log into your account at least once, and make at least 1 direct deposit, online bill payment, or automatic payment (ACH) per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization membership.
  • Orion Federal Credit Union pays 6.00% APY on up to $10,000 if you make electronic deposits of $500+ each month (ACH transfers count) and spend $500+ on your Orion debit or credit card each month. Anyone can join this credit union via $10 membership fee to partner organization membership.
  • All America/Redneck Bank pays 4.65% APY on up to $15,000 if you make 10 debit card purchases each monthly cycle with online statements.
  • Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • Synchrony Bank has a 5-year certificate at 4.00% APY (no minimum), 4-year at 4.00% APY, 3-year at 4.00% APY, 2-year at 3.90% APY, and 1-year at 4.40% APY. Early withdrawal penalty for the 4-year and 5-year is 365 days of interest.
  • Advancial Federal Credit Union has has a 5-year certificate at 4.09% APY (higher $50,000 min). Early withdrawal penalty for the 5-year is 365 days of interest. Anyone nationwide should be able to join via membership with partner organization US Dog Agility Association, but I would call or check first.
  • State Department FCU has a 60-month CD at at 3.91% APY ($500 min) or 4.11% APY (jumbo $100,000 min). Early withdrawal penalty for the 5-year is 360 days of interest. Membership is open nationwide by agreeing to join the American Consumer Council (ACC) membership. Try promo code “consumer” when signing up at ACC for a free membership.
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. Right now, I see a 5-year non-callable CD at 3.75 to 3.80% APY (callable: no, call protection: yes). Be warned that both Vanguard and Fidelity will list higher rates from callable CDs, which importantly means they can call back your CD if rates drop later. (Issuers have indeed started calling some of their old 5%+ CDs as of Fall 2024.)

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk (tbh, I don’t use them at all), but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10 years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. You might find something that pays more than your other brokerage cash and Treasury options. Right now, I see a 10-year CDs at 3.75% (non-callable) vs. 4.03% for a 10-year Treasury. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs where they can call your CD back if interest rates drop.

All rates were checked as of 10/15/2024.

Photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash

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Robinhood HOOD Week Promo: 3% IRA, 2% Margin, 1% ACAT Bonus (10/16-10/27)

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Robinhood brokerage app is jumping on the week-long promo trend and just teased Robinhood HOOD Week (“HOOD” is their stock symbol) from October 16, 2024 to October 27, 2024. The front page is vague but inside the full terms you can see exactly what they will be offering. They are still aggressively collecting assets, and are rolling back out some very competitive cash bonuses when you transfer in assets from external brokerages:

  • 1% bonus on ACATS transfers to your Robinhood joint or individual investing account from an external brokerage. Two-year minimum hold period.
  • 2% bonus on ACATS transfers with a margin balance of $10,000 or more to your Robinhood joint or individual investing account from an external brokerage. Two-year minimum hold period.
  • 3% on ACATS transfers to your Robinhood IRA with a Robinhood Gold subscription, excluding rollovers. Five-year minimum hold period.

Hodl on, though! Transfers must be initiated between 12 AM ET on October 16, 2024 and 11:59 PM ET on October 27, 2024.

Robinhood will also reimburse up to $75 in outgoing transfer fees with transfers of $7,500 or more. This is a one-time reimbursement per account type, per external brokerage.

The asset retention requirement requires that you maintain the transferred assets in your Robinhood account for at least 2 years for the 1% or 2% bonuses and 5 years for the 3% bonus. If you withdraw assets and the balance falls below the initial transfer amount, Robinhood reserves the right to reduce or revoke your bonus, in full or in part.

The 2% bonus with margin balances is an interesting new wrinkle, and it could very easily be worth it “create” a margin balance ahead of time in preparation for the promo week. You’d want to withdraw your cash, and then buy something on margin – even SGOV or another Treasury Bill ETF would work. Paying even 12% interest on $10,000 of margin for an entire month would only be $100 of interest. An extra 1% on $100,000 transferred is worth $1,000, an extra 1% of $1 million is $10,000, and so on.

I didn’t even know you were allowed to transfer margin balances, but apparently that is one of the features of the ACATS system. I suppose it’s like a balance transfer between credit cards, and Robinhood really wants your interest-accruing debt.

I’ve already written multiple articles about past flavors of these Robinhood promos, and I participated in the 3% IRA bonus previously. As always, read through the terms and understand that you’ll be locked into Robinhood for two to five years. Since I’m already partially locked-in, I am pondering that new 2% margin transfer bonus. 🤔

(Anyone understand the meaning of the cherry?)

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MMB Portfolio Dividend & Interest Income Update – October 2024 (Q3)

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Here’s my quarterly income update as a companion post to my October 2024 asset allocation & performance update. I prefer to track the income produced as an alternative metric to performance. The total income goes up much more gradually and consistently than the number shown on brokerage statements (market price), which helps encourage consistent investing. Here’s a related quote from Jack Bogle (source):

The true investor will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies. – Jack Bogle

Here is the historical growth of the S&P 500 total dividend, which tracks roughly the largest 500 stocks in the US, updated after 2024 Q2 (via Yardeni Research):

That is a much smoother ride than the price index. I imagine my portfolio as a factory that churns out dollar bills, or a tree that gives dividend fruit.

Why I like tracking dividends in general. Stock dividends are a portion of profits that businesses have decided to distribute directly to shareholders, as opposed to reinvesting into their business, paying back debt, or buying back shares. They have explicitly decided that they don’t need this money to improve their business, and that it would be better to distribute to shareholders. The dividends may suffer some short-term drops, but over the long run they have grown faster than inflation.

In the US, the dividend culture is somewhat conservative in that shareholders expect dividends to be stable and only go up. Thus the starting yield is lower, but grows more steadily with smaller cuts during hard times. There is also a growing trend towards buybacks, partially because they are easier to discontinue. Here is the historical growth of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend paid by the Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI) via StockAnalysis.com.

European corporate culture tends to encourage paying out a higher (sometimes fixed) percentage of earnings as dividends, but that also means the dividends move up and down with earnings. The starting yield is currently higher but may not grow as reliably. Here is the historical growth of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend paid by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS).

The dividend yield (dividends divided by price) also serve as a rough valuation metric. When stock prices drop, this percentage metric usually goes up – which makes me feel better in a bear market. When stock prices go up, this percentage metric usually goes down, which keeps me from getting too euphoric during a bull market.

In the case of REITs, they are legally required to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends. Historically, about half of the total return from REITs is from this dividend income.

Finally, the last component comes from interest from bonds and cash. This will obviously vary with the prevailing interest rates, the real rates on TIPS, and the current rate of inflation. In 2024, we are finally back to getting paid a small percentage more than inflation on our cash.

Dividend and interest income from my specific asset allocation. To estimate the income from my portfolio, I use the weighted “TTM” or “12-Month Yield” from Morningstar (checked 10/7/24), which is the sum of the trailing 12 months of interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed (usually zero for index funds) over the same period. My TTM portfolio yield is now roughly 2.38%.

2.38% is the lowest TTM yield that my portfolio has been since 2021. So even though the value of my portfolio is much higher than a year or two ago, the actual amount of income distributed hasn’t kept up. As you can see from my total annual income tracker, my actual income from this portfolio has been mostly steady since mid-2022 (when interest rates started to rise again). Again, this keeps me from getting too euphoric from the market’s gains. A lot of it is just P/E ratio expansion, which can just as easily be followed by P/E ratio contraction.

What about the 4% rule? For big-picture purposes, I support the simple 4% or 3% rule of thumb, which equates to a target of accumulating roughly 25 to 33 times your annual expenses. I would lean towards a 3% withdrawal rate if you want to retire young (closer to age 50) and a 4% withdrawal rate if retiring at a more traditional age (closer to 65). Too much time is spent debating this number. It’s just a quick and dirty target to get you started, not a number sent down from the heavens!

During the accumulation stage, your time is better spent focusing on earning potential via better career moves, improving your skillset, networking, and/or looking for asymmetrical entrepreneurial opportunities where you have an ownership interest.

As a semi-retired investor that has been partially supported by portfolio income for a while, I find that tracking income makes more tangible sense in my mind. Our dividends and interest income are not automatically reinvested. They are simply another “paycheck”. As with our other variable paychecks, we can choose to either spend it or invest it again to compound things more quickly. You could use this money to cut back working hours, pursue a different career path, start a new business, take a sabbatical, perform charity or volunteer work, and so on. You don’t have to wait until you hit a huge magic number. FIRE is Life!

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Vanguard Adds Automatic, Recurring Dollar-Based ETF Investments

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Vanguard has rolled out the ability to make automatic, recurring purchases of Vanguard ETFs using fractional shares (dollar-based purchases, $1 minimum) inside their in-house brokerage account. Trade commissions are still zero. I know that some readers were waiting for this feature. I believe it should be available in all accounts – as of last week it showed as a “pre-release” feature in my account but now that message is gone.

To find it, look for the “Automatic Investments” button on the main page after login. If you are already logged into Vanguard, you could try clicking this link.

You then see the option to schedule recurring purchases of ETFs in addition to mutual funds.

If you click on that, you can choose from weekly, weekly, bi-weekly, and twice a month frequencies. You can set it to repeat indefinitely, or set a fixed end date.

Note the following timing details:

If your automatic investment is scheduled outside of business or market hours (for example on a weekend or holiday), brokerage purchases will be processed on a prior business day. Monthly investments scheduled for the 29th, 30th, or 31st day will occur on the last day of the month during shorter months.

Here are some potential benefits of this new feature:

  • With fractional ETFs, you can invest with as little as $1. You don’t need to meet the $3,000 minimum initial purchase of some Vanguard mutual funds.
  • Vanguard ETFs often have a lower expense ratio than their mutual fund counterparts.
  • ETFs are a more portable form if you want to later switch brokerages.
  • In general, ETFs are more tax-efficient than mutual funds, but Vanguard ETFs and mutual funds have the exact same tax-efficiency due to their structure as different share classes.

For example, now you can automatically buy $100 of VTI every week, even though one share of VTI is over $200. To match up with this, you might set up a separate, weekly automatic transfer of $100 from your bank account into your brokerage account. I don’t know that you can set it to directly pull from your bank account.

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MMB Portfolio Asset Allocation & Performance Update – October 2024 (Q3)

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Here’s my 2024 Q3 update for our primary investment holdings, including all of our combined 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excluding our house and smaller side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but a sharing of our real-world, imperfect, low-cost, diversified DIY portfolio.

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
Here’s how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types. There are limited free advanced options after Morningstar discontinued free access to their portfolio tracker. I use both Empower Personal Dashboard (previously known as Personal Capital) and a custom Google Spreadsheet to track my investment holdings:

  • The Empower Personal Dashboard real-time portfolio tracking tools (free) automatically logs into my different accounts, adds up my various balances, tracks my performance, and calculates my overall asset allocation daily. Formerly known as Personal Capital.
  • Once a quarter, I also update my manual Google Spreadsheet (free to copy, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation. I also create a new tab each quarter, so I have a personal archive of my holdings dating back many years.

2024 Q3 Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Holdings” and “Allocation” tabs of my Empower Personal Dashboard.

I own broad, low-cost exposure to productive assets that will provide long-term returns above inflation, distribute income via dividends and interest, and finally offer some historical tendencies to balance each other out. I have faith in the long-term benefit of owning businesses worldwide, as well as the stability of high-quality US Treasury debt. I let my stock holdings float with the total world market cap breakdown, currently at ~62% US and ~38% ex-US. I do add just a little “spice” to the broad funds with the inclusion of “small value” factor ETFs for US, Developed International, and Emerging Markets stocks as well as diversified real estate exposure through US REITs. But if you step back and look at the big picture, this is my simplified target portfolio:

By paying minimal costs including management fees, transaction spreads, and tax drag, I am trying to essentially guarantee myself above-average net performance over time.

The portfolio that you can hold onto through the tough times is the best one for you. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to earn those historically high returns. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you’ll want to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios, as I don’t think picking through the details of the recent past will necessarily create superior future returns. You’ll usually find that whatever model portfolio is popular at the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently as well.

I have settled into a long-term target ratio of roughly 70% stocks and 30% bonds within our investment strategy of buy, hold, and occasionally rebalance. My goal has evolved to more of a “perpetual income portfolio” as opposed to a “build up a big stash and hope it lasts until I die” portfolio. My target withdrawal rate is 3% or less. Here is a round-number breakdown of my target asset allocation along with my primary ETF holding for each asset class.

  • 35% US Total Market (VTI)
  • 5% US Small-Cap Value (VBR/AVUV)
  • 20% International Total Market (VXUS)
  • 5% International Small-Cap Value (AVDV)
  • 5% US Real Estate (REIT) (VNQ)
  • 15% US “Regular” Treasury Bonds or FDIC-insured deposits
  • 15% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (or I Savings Bonds)

Performance details. According to Empower, my portfolio is up about 12.7% so far in 2024. The S&P 500 is up about 19.5% YTD, while the US Bond index is up around 4.8%. I hold bonds and international stocks so that I’m always going to be lagging the hottest sector, but I really can’t complain. International stocks actually had a really good Q3, even though nobody seemed to notice.

I didn’t make any significant buys, just some 401k contributions and reinvested dividends/interest. Peeled off some to pay quarterly taxes. No sell transactions. Owning stocks continues to reward long-term investors. Out of curiosity, I generated a Morningstar Growth of $10,000 Chart for the Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (VASGX) which holds a static 80% stocks and 20% bonds and most closed mimics my portfolio since 2005, roughly when I started investing more seriously and started this blog. A *very* rough approximation is to expect your money to double every decade (Rule of 72). The money that I invested 20 years ago has indeed roughly doubled twice (4X).

I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.