Search Results for: munger

Bill Bernstein Interview: New Edition of The Four Pillars of Investing Book

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone.

“The Long View” by Mornginstar is an excellent podcast for DIY investors with a long-term perspective. Their recent episode Bill Bernstein: Revisiting ‘The Four Pillars of Investing’ had on Dr. Bernstein to help promote his newly-updated The Four Pillars of Investing, Second Edition*. I haven’t read the new edition yet, but the podcast alone was full of useful evidence and unique nuggets.

(* I found it amusing that Amazon was advertising a book titled “Learn Proven Day Trading Strategies” on the same page. What an oxymoron! I seriously worry about new investors finding the good stuff amongst all this noise.)

I recommend listening or reading the handy podcast transcript, but here are my top takeaways and highlights.

Don’t interrupt compounding. Have enough safe assets to make it through the next crisis, which will inevitably arrive sooner or later.

[…] yes, compounding is magic, but you have to observe Charlie Munger’s prime directive of compounding, which is never to interrupt it. So, you have to design your portfolio not with the normal 98% of the world and 90% of the time in mind. You have to design your portfolio with the worst 2% of the time in mind so that you don’t interrupt compounding, which basically translated into plain English means that you probably should have more safe assets than you think you should have. In other words, a suboptimal portfolio that you can execute is better than a stock-heavy optimal one that you cannot execute.

Why you may prefer to own Treasury bonds over Corporate bonds, even if the latter has a slightly higher average return.

[…] it’s not just that you have the risk of bad returns, it’s bad returns in bad times. And that’s the problem with corporate bonds, is when corporate bonds do poorly, they do poorly at the worst possible time.

[… the] 0.8% or 0.6% returns premium you get over Treasuries from high-grade corporate bonds just isn’t worth it.

Have realistic expectations if you tilt to factors like size, value, quality, and so forth.

I think that in finance, even the best bets you make are at best 60/40, most of the time they’re closer to 51/49. So, you just have to resign yourself to the fact that you’re going to be wrong a large part of the time in exchange for being right most of the time. And even then, the margin isn’t going to be that much.

How to protect your portfolio against inflation.

Well, for starters, you keep your bond duration short so that when rates rise, you can roll them over at the higher rate. And stocks, although stocks don’t do well initially with inflation, what you see is that over the very, very, long term, they do.

The hazards of backtesting. Whatever has performed well mostly recently will overwhelm the results.

What happened back in the 1970s and ‘80s and ‘90s is people fell in love with mean-variance optimization, the Markowitz algorithm. It looked like all you had to do was collect asset-class returns and standard deviations and the correlation grid, which is the inputs to the Markowitz algorithm. And you could predict the future-efficient frontier, that is the allocation that gave you the most amount of return for a given degree of risk or for a given degree of return that stopped you with the lowest degree of volatility. And it turns out that the inputs to that produce enormous changes in the outputs and that the algorithm, if you’re going to use historical returns, then favors the asset classes with the highest returns.

Why not 100% stocks for young folks?

There is a wonderful quote from Fred Schwed’s marvelous book, Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?

“There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin, either by words or pictures, nor can any description I might offer here even approximate what it feels like to lose a real chunk of money that you used to own. If you’re a young investor, you’re an investment virgin, you’ve never lost a real chunk of money, and you have no idea how you’re actually going to respond to stocks falling by 30% or 50%.”

Asset allocation for early retirees:

Someone who is a FIRE person—financial independence, retire early—and wants to retire at age 40, better have a fairly aggressive allocation with a very low burn rate.

Not a fan of lifetime income via annuities. First, they are greatly exposed to inflation risk. Second, they are exposed to credit risk (insurance company failure). He is skeptical about the state guaranty system.

These are all commercial products and people are very fond of pointing out, yes, these products have state guarantees, but of course, they’re funded by the insurance industry. There is nothing magic about a state guarantee. Most states have fairly low caps on the amount that is protected. And then, finally, even those guarantees can fail. And if you don’t think that that can happen, you should go Google “Executive Life Insurance.”

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.


MMB Portfolio 2023 2nd Quarter Update: Asset Allocation & Performance

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone.

Here’s my quarterly update on my current investment holdings at the end of 2023 Q2, including our 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excluding our primary residence and side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but a sharing of our real-world, imperfect, low-cost, diversified DIY portfolio.

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
Here’s how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types. There are limited free options after Morningstar discontinued free access to their portfolio tracker. I use both Empower Personal Dashboard (previously known as Personal Capital) and a custom Google Spreadsheet to track my investment holdings:

  • The Empower Personal Dashboard real-time portfolio tracking tools (free) automatically logs into my different accounts, adds up my various balances, tracks my performance, and calculates my overall asset allocation daily.
  • Once a quarter, I also update my manual Google Spreadsheet (free to copy, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation. I also create a new tab each quarter, so I have an archive of my holdings dating back many years.

2023 Q2 Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Holdings” and “Allocation” tabs of my Empower Personal Dashboard.

Humble Portfolio Background. I call this my “Humble Portfolio” because it accepts the repeated findings that individuals cannot reliably time the market, and that persistence in above-average stock-picking and/or sector-picking is exceedingly rare. Charlie Munger believes that only 5% of professional money managers have the skill required to consistently beat the index averages after costs.

If beating a “simple, unsophisticated” Target Retirement Index Fund was so easy, they should simply charge money for it. You give me 2% outperformance, and I’ll pay you 1%. You simply have to cover any and all losses if you happen to underperform the “simple, unsophisticated” index fund. Isn’t it strange how nobody would take that deal?

Instead, by paying minimal costs including management fees, transaction spreads, and tax drag, you can essentially guarantee yourself above-average net performance over time.

I own broad, low-cost exposure to productive assets that will provide long-term returns above inflation, distribute income via dividends and interest, and finally offer some historical tendencies to balance each other out. I have faith in the long-term benefit of owning businesses worldwide, as well as the stability of high-quality US Treasury debt. My stock holdings roughly follow the total world market cap breakdown at roughly 60% US and 40% ex-US. I add just a little “spice” to the broad funds with the inclusion of “small value” ETFs for US, Developed International, and Emerging Markets stocks as well as additional real estate exposure through US REITs.

I strongly believe in the importance of knowing WHY you own something. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to truly make your money. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you’ll want to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios, as I don’t think picking through the details of the recent past will necessarily create superior future returns. You’ll find that whatever model portfolio is popular in the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently as well.

Find productive assets that you believe in and understand, and just keep buying them through the ups and downs. Mine may be different than yours.

I have settled into a long-term target ratio of roughly 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or 2:1 ratio) within our investment strategy of buy, hold, and occasionally rebalance. My goal is more “perpetual income portfolio” as opposed to the more common “build up a big stash and hope it lasts until I die” portfolio. My target withdrawal rate is 3% or less. Here is a round-number breakdown of my target asset allocation.

  • 30% US Total Market
  • 5% US Small-Cap Value
  • 20% International Total Market
  • 5% International Small-Cap Value
  • 10% US Real Estate (REIT)
  • 15% US Treasury Nominal Bonds or FDIC-insured deposits
  • 15% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (or I Savings Bonds)

Details. According to Empower, my portfolio went up about 8.8% YTD to 7/4/2023. The S&P 500 is up 16% YTD, while the US Bond index is up about 2%. Remaining invested with stocks has paid off this year significantly more than worrying about the details of Treasury bills and cash rate-chasing.

There was only minor rebalancing with cashflows (mostly dividends) this quarter. I loosely keep up with the new DFA and Avantis ETFs that come out, but am somewhat limited in what I buy as I have lot of capital gains built up right now. DFA has an International Small Cap Value ETF (DISV) and an Emerging Markets Value ETF (DFEV). Avantis also has an Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF (AVDV) and Avantis Emerging Markets Value ETF (AVES). I’ll keep them in mind if there are future drops and other tax loss harvesting opportunities.

I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.


2023 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting Video, Transcript, and Notes

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone.

The 2023 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting occurred on May, 6 2023, and while there are articles offering highlights (including this one), it’s never the same feeling as watching/listening to the actual thing. I always find a few things that mean something to me, even if just a small side remark, that don’t make it into the financial news headlines. Warren Buffet (92) and Charlie Munger (99) continue to impress with their amazing mental acuity and stamina.

CNBC again has the rights to record and host the full video and transcripts (morning session, afternoon session) and they did a nice job with syncing the text and sound on the afternoon session (the morning one didn’t work for me). Here are a few personal takeaways and notes.

Overall, I am reminded that Buffett regards Berkshire Hathaway as his life’s work and masterpiece. He may not have much time left to paint, but it is already beautifully constructed. It is built to prosper in the long-term, but also to withstand anything thrown at it in the short-term. This is how I wish to build up my family’s finances as well. A large engine of productive investments that create growing profits and cashflow. Always having a sizable cash holding as well, never having worry about market crashes or liquidity needs. Berkshire sells insurance to cover the rare events, and I buy them to protect us from those types of events (life, home, auto liability, umbrella).

Autopilot. Buffett points out that it will be hard to judge how well his successors are doing, as by design, Berkshire will operate very well even mostly on auto-pilot. The subsidiary companies all have their own managers. The stocks are bought with the intention of holding for a long time if not forever. This reminds me that I should make our finances more auto-pilot as well. I may enjoy the micro-management now, but I worry that I am making things too complicated in a situation where I’m not around.

The benefits of being financially independent. No boss above telling you what to do, but also no direct customers to please.

[Warren Buffett speaking about Charlier Munger] He didn’t want to sell his time, maybe at 20 bucks an hour or something, to people he thought were making the wrong the decisions. And he knew more about it than they did. And that just did not strike him as a good way to go through life. And I think he’s probably right on that.

I think he’d have really gotten to be miserable if he had to keep doing that. It’s just no fun. It’d be like me giving investment advice to somebody that — or taking it from somebody. I just wouldn’t want to do it. And Charlie figured that out. And so, we decided to work for ourselves. And this worked. Been happy, happily ever after.

Charlie Munger was a successful lawyer, but he didn’t want to give advice to people who often wouldn’t take it. Warren Buffett could have been a investment manager or financial advisor, but he also didn’t want to give advice to people who often wouldn’t take it. I have thought about becoming a financial advisor of some sort, but I think it would be very difficult to spend your time carefully crafting advice and then seeing someone just do the opposite. As a self-directed investor, I enjoy the fact that I can do my own research, make my own decisions, and implement them as I wish. It takes a while to build up your first $100,000, but there is a reason why his biography is called The Snowball.

Berkshire shareholders as the frugal millionaires. I have to admit, I enjoy the stereotype that Berkshire Hathaway shareholders tend to be frugal, practical, and not focused on outward appearances. Here’s a funny anecdote that speaks to that (even though Munger now flies NetJets, a Berkshire subsidiary).

CHARLIE MUNGER: I used to come to the Berkshire annual meetings on coach from Los Angeles. And it was full of rich stockholders. And they would clap when I came into the coach section. I really liked that. (LAUGHTER) (APPLAUSE)

How to live a good and successful life. Buffett has said this quote before, but it’s a good one:

…you should write your obituary and then try and figure out how to live up to it.

Charlie Munger expands:

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, it’s so simple to spend less than you earn, and invest shrewdly, and avoid toxic people and toxic activities, and try and keep learning all your life, et cetera, et cetera, and do a lot of deferred gratification because you prefer life that way. And if you do all those things, you are almost certain to succeed. And if you don’t, you’re going to need a lot of luck. And you don’t want to need a lot of luck. You want to go into a game where you’re very likely to win without having any unusual luck.

… the toxic people who are trying to fool you or lie to you or aren’t reliable in meeting their commitments. A great lesson of life is get them the hell out of your life. […] And do it fast. […] I don’t mind a little tact. Or even a little financial cost. But the question is getting them the hell out of your life.

Again, my favorite way is to listen to the audio track of the CNBC or YouTube videos in the car like a podcast over multiple days. If you’d rather read more detailed notes, check out the CNBC Liveblog, Kingswell and Rational Walk.

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.


William Bernstein on Holding Both Treasury Bonds and TIPS (or Savings I Bonds)

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone.

sb_posterWilliam Bernstein has a new article titled Riskless at Age 104 in which he outlines why he just bought some 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) that won’t mature until he is 104 years old. Despite that distracting headline, the article is more about the reasons why you might want to hold both traditional US Treasury bonds that pay a stated rate and TIPS that pay a stated rate above inflation.

Here’s a quote that is nearly the answer to a riddle: What is risky in the short run but riskless in the long run? What is the opposite?

A TIPS is risky in the short term and riskless in the long run, which is precisely the opposite of, and complementary to, a T-bill, which is riskless in the short term but, because of reinvestment rate volatility, risky in the long run.

In the end, Dr. Bernstein recommends holding both:

To summarize, TIPS and T-bills are complementary assets. The former appeals to our System 2’s inner Spock, who first and foremost wants to secure our future consumption, while the latter assuages our System 1’s inner Daffy Duck, who wants us to bail at the worst possible time and violate Charlie Munger’s first rule of compounding, which is to never interrupt it.

The prudent retiree holds a goodly pile of both.

I also split the bond portion of my portfolio between safe traditional bonds (and cash and CDs) and safe inflation-protected bonds. My take:

  • Cash, which can be held in the form of short-term Treasury Bills or cash deposits in an FDIC-insured bank account, satisfies our System 1 “reptile brain”. It’s simple, reliable, and easy to understand. It may not keep up with inflation perfectly, but it also moves around a lot less.
  • TIPS and I Savings Bonds, which allow you to remove the variable of unexpectedly high inflation over long period of time (up to 30 years out), satisfies our System 2 “rational brain”. As a long-time holder, I can attest that it fluctuates in unpredictable ways and is not that much fun to hold. It’s actually like stocks in that price seem to drop in times of crisis. You have to really understand the inner workings, but if you do then it becomes a form of long-term insurance against unexpectedly high inflation.

This is also why I’m still buying Savings I Bonds every year even though the headline rates are not as crazy anymore. I don’t buy them as a substitute for short-term cash, but as a form of long-term insurance policy. When inflation spiked up to 8%+, it wasn’t just $10k of I Savings Bonds that I bought in 2022 that went up 8%+. My entire stash of I Savings Bonds slowly accumulated over a decade or more went up 8%+. I will admit, it felt nice that something went up in 2022. Savings I Bonds also never go down in value (unlike TIPS), so in a way they are the least stressful way to hold inflation-protected bonds.

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.


MMB Humble Portfolio 2023 First Quarter Update: Asset Allocation & Performance

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone.

Here’s my quarterly update on my current investment holdings at the end of 2023 Q1, including our 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excluding our residence and side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but a sharing of our real, imperfect, low-cost, diversified DIY portfolio. Wouldn’t it be nice if everyone else did the same? (Many people do track the 13F filings of well-known investors.)

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
Here’s how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types. There are limited free options after Morningstar discontinued free access to their portfolio tracker. I use both Empower Personal Dashboard and a custom Google Spreadsheet to track my investment holdings:

  • The Empower Personal Dashboard real-time portfolio tracking tools (free) automatically logs into my different accounts, adds up my various balances, tracks my performance, and calculates my overall asset allocation daily.
  • Once a quarter, I also update my manual Google Spreadsheet (free to copy, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation. I also create a new tab each quarter, so I have an archive of my holdings dating back many years.

2023 Q1 Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Allocation” and “Holdings” tabs of my Personal Capital account.

Humble Portfolio Background. I call this my “Humble Portfolio” because it accepts the repeated findings that individuals cannot reliably time the market, and that persistence in above-average stock-picking and/or sector-picking is exceedingly rare. Charlie Munger believes that only 5% of professional money managers have the skill required to consistently beat the index averages after costs.

Costs matter and nearly everyone who sells outperformance, for some reason keeps charging even if they provide zero outperformance! By paying minimal costs including management fees, transaction spreads, and tax drag, you can essentially guarantee yourself above-average net performance over time.

I own broad, low-cost exposure to productive assets that will provide long-term returns above inflation, distribute income via dividends and interest, and finally offer some historical tendencies to balance each other out. I have faith in the long-term benefit of owning businesses worldwide, as well as the stability of high-quality US Treasury debt. My stock holdings roughly follow the total world market cap breakdown at roughly 60% US and 40% ex-US. I add just a little “spice” to the vanilla funds with the inclusion of “small value” ETFs for US, Developed International, and Emerging Markets stocks as well as additional real estate exposure through US REITs.

I strongly believe in the importance of knowing WHY you own something. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to truly make your money. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you’ll want to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios, as I don’t think picking through the details of the recent past will necessarily create superior future returns. You’ll find that whatever model portfolio is popular in the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently as well.

Find productive assets that you believe in and understand, and just keep buying them through the ups and downs. Mine may be different than yours.

I have settled into a long-term target ratio of roughly 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or 2:1 ratio) within our investment strategy of buy, hold, and occasionally rebalance. My goal is more “perpetual income portfolio” as opposed to the more common “build up a big stash and hope it lasts until I die” portfolio. My target withdrawal rate is 3% or less. Here is a round-number breakdown of my target asset allocation.

  • 30% US Total Market
  • 5% US Small-Cap Value
  • 20% International Total Market
  • 5% International Small-Cap Value
  • 10% US Real Estate (REIT)
  • 15% US Treasury Nominal Bonds or FDIC-insured deposits
  • 15% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (or I Savings Bonds)

Commentary. The goal of this “Humble Portfolio” is to create sustainable income that keeps up with inflation to cover our household expenses. According to Empower, my portfolio went up about 4.9% YTD to 4/3/2023. There was only minor rebalancing with cashflows done this quarter.

Due to the rising real yield on TIPS and rising yields on nominal Treasuries and CDs, there is more incentive to micro-managed the bond side a little bit. When the real yields on individual long-term TIPS go above 1.5% and I have cash to reinvest into bonds, that is what I am buying. As usual, I am trying to maintain high yields across a 1 to 5 year ladder horizon by picking between savings accounts, no-penalty CD, longer-term 5-year CDs, and longer-term Treasuries. However, I am also balancing between the extra yield from opening a new account or just staying with an existing bank where I already have a relationship.

I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.


How To Destroy Your Wealth

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone.

Charlie Munger and his principle of inversion tells us that sometimes the easiest way to achieve something is to flip it and consider the best ways to accomplish exactly what you are trying to avoid. Accordingly, check out this slide deck about Avoiding Financial Disasters by Barry Ritholtz (full 1-hour video presentation here).

If you would like to destroy your wealth, here are the top 10 ways to do so:

This may sound overly simple, but nearly every single wealthy person who has gone broke has used one of these methods. Obviously some of these are harder to avoid than others, but most are clearly identifiable and avoidable. Give them a wide berth. For example, if you had most of your net worth in shares of Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank, you may have made big gains for a while, but in the end be left with nothing. You should only have to get rich once.

Also see: How To Make Your Life Completely Miserable

(Top photo credit to Jp Valery on Unsplash)

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.


Berkshire Hathaway 2022 Annual Shareholder Letter by Warren Buffett Notes

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) released its 2022 Letter to Shareholders, which is how Warren Buffett updates his fellow shareholders annually on the status of the business. Direct ownership of Berkshire Hathaway shares was one of my first “self-directed” investments (above index fund holdings) for both educational and profit purposes. The reason that people like me always mention Warren Buffett is not because he is smart, but because he is an excellent teacher that cuts through the fog of complex subjects. He writes this letter with his sister in mind. This year’s letter is only 9 pages long, so I recommend reading it for yourself.

This year, the letter covered a lot of familiar ground. That’s the thing about investing and personal finance though, most of it is just sticking with a few simple yet critical ideas for years and years. Build the habit to act honorably and rationally every day, and keep avoiding risks where you can lose everything. Here are my personal highlights.

Berkshire shareholders are different.

We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.

Berkshire owns both businesses in their entirety and pieces through publicly-traded stock shares. They take the long-term view with both:

Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.

As investors, don’t cut the flowers and water the weeds. Hold onto those flowers. This applies to index fund investing as well. If you buy the entire haystack, you are guaranteed to own the needles (flowers).

The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.

The pillars: continuous saving, the power of compounding, avoiding catastrophic failures, and the American Tailwind.

Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.

More on the importance of risk management and having skin in the game. What do you do? “I own a boatload of cash and a wide array of businesses.” Sounds perfect. 😁

As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money.

Don’t count on Berkshire being broken apart or starting to distribute dividends anytime soon:

And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.

At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.

The letter ends with a bunch of wise quotes from Charlie Munger. Here’s just one.

There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.

Past shareholder letter notes.

The 2024 annual shareholder meeting will be in Omaha on Saturday, May 4th. CNBC will most likely livestream it again.

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Some Holiday Thoughts on Effort, Results, and Control

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Happy Holidays! I hope that everyone reading this is enjoying time with family and friends in their own tradition. This is a time for reflection, but my interest in diving deeply into financial topics has been low recently. As I sit amongst a pile of used wrapping paper and cookie crumbs, allow me to reflect on something else.

By chance, my wife recently met a nurse that worked in the pediatric ICU at the same time that our youngest daughter spent some time there. Nearly exactly four years ago today, she experienced sudden, unexplained seizures that lasted on and off for nearly 48 hours. I’ll never forget the uncontrollable screaming and violent movements, the cage that she was put inside to keep her from climbing out and hurting herself. The feeling of complete helplessness. I won’t go into detail, but the short version is that after years of behavioral and speech therapy (and ongoing anti-seizure medication twice every day), she is now at a mainstream kindergarten school. She is a happy, hilarious, spunky little human. She is a fighter.

Where the nurse comes in is that she remembers both our daughter and another child that came in with the same starting conditions, but for the other child the seizures didn’t stop and they never recovered “normal” brain function. This other child has been on my mind. Both of their lives could have been very different. They were equally innocent. We were lucky. I was overcome again by that same feeling of helplessness.

There is so much we can’t control. I couldn’t choose the country where I was born. I couldn’t choose my parents. I couldn’t choose my genes. I couldn’t choose my gender or race or sexual orientation or decade that I was born. I couldn’t choose to have working eyes, ears, or nervous system.

Yet I crave control. Take this site. I want to control how to make more money. I want to control how to spend less money. I want to find the best way to invest that difference into ownership of businesses and other assets. I want these money factories reliably provide me a stream of income. I want to be be able to walk away from bloated corporations, the blind following of metrics, and self-enriching executives. I want spend my time doing something meaningful and fulfilling. I have worked decades for this ability. I have been very fortunate that for the most part, more work has equalled more results. Yet I would give every single penny up if I was the parent of the other child, in order to switch situations with my child.

So that’s the paradox that I’ve been thinking about. We need to respect that we can’t control the cards of which we’ve been dealt, and neither can anyone else. There would be much more grace and forgiveness in this world if we all remembered that. However, we also need to play our own cards as well as we possibly can. So many people don’t feel like they have a chance, so they don’t bother trying. I feel it is critically important that everyone feels they have a chance. Even if effort and reward are not always directly linked, we need to act as if our efforts are worth it. How do you help encourage yourself and others to keep up the effort?

While trying to work this out internally, I appreciated these quotes from Mahatma Ghandi:

Satisfaction lies in the effort, not in the attainment, full effort is full victory.

Glory lies in the attempt to reach one’s goal and not in reaching it.

You may never know what results come of your actions, but if you do nothing, there will be no results.

Change yourself – you are in control.

Here’s the remarkable story of another amazing child who made the most from what he was given. Even though it was prematurely ended by tragic accident, he lived well and I am both humbled and inspired by his story.

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2022 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting Video, Transcript, and Notes

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Here are my notes on the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting. This year, CNBC has the rights to record and host the full video and transcripts (morning session, afternoon session) and they did a nice job with syncing the text and sound. I enjoyed listening to it like a podcast first and then reading through the text a second time around. There are many financial media articles with highlights, but here are my personal takeaways and notes.

Berkshire Hathaway is their life’s work and legacy. It’s fascinating to see how they have tried their best to build it to last forever. I recently listened to an outdoor podcast called Dirtbag Diaries where a 78-year-old man suffering from late-stage Parkinson’s disease still completed a 10-day whitewater rafting trip in the Canadian wilderness. Some folks just have more life energy than life time left, and wring out every last bit. Inspiring.

Warren Buffett is 91 and Charlie Munger is 98. These guys could be relaxing. They know the end is near, but they still have energy and are doing what they love. They built Berkshire bit by bit and the shareholders that they will leave behind are close family and friends that trust them. BRK is their legacy, and they have carefully crafted it to keep growing for those shareholders long past their lifetimes.

But most — a great many of them just say, you know, “We’ve saved this money. And we trust you and Charlie.” And that’s a great motivator, this trust.

“And, you know, take care of it and I’m not going to learn accounting and try to read all those statements or anything of the sort.”

You know, if I went broke, it wouldn’t really make any difference. It’d keep doing what I do. I’d figure out a way to read a paper and watch a little TV (Laughter) and think about things and talk to Charlie.

But the idea of losing, permanently, other people’s money — people who trust us — really, really — that’s just a future I don’t want to have.

So, the one thing I can tell you about Berkshire — although I can’t predict what our earnings will be, and I can’t predict what the stock will do, and I can’t — we don’t know. We don’t know what the economy will do and all of that sort of thing.

But we do know that we wake up every morning and we want to be safer, in terms of your eventual investment.

Now, whether you make the most money or anything, we do not want you to get a terrible result because you’ve decided to become our partner. And that’s a pledge you can live by.

They aren’t done yet, either. As long as they are able, they will keep adding pieces. They spent $40 billion is just three weeks, and are probably still buying stuff as I type this. The media usually only focuses their attention on certain purchases, but you can track their 13F filings to see exactly they bought and sold. Sites like Dataroma parse them for you, but if you plan on copycat investing be warned that the data is delayed and also Buffett is not always buy and hold forever. He’s not always right, and when Buffett realizes this, he can also sell quickly. Being late after he buys and late after he sells can be a very bad combo.

Berkshire Hathaway share repurchase timing gives some hints. They also bought back a few more BRK shares in January to March 2022 ($3 billion), but none in April 2022 once the price rose. This should give you a hint as to what Buffett thinks is a “good deal” on BRK shares. He wouldn’t buy back shares unless they were safely below his estimate of intrinsic value. You may see those 2021 and early 2022 prices again…

Cash is like oxygen. We should all keep adequate cash reserves in 100% liquid and safe places. Home equity lines of credit can (and have been) frozen quickly. Credit card limits can be reduced. We should know by now that crazy stuff happens quickly.

When 2008 and 2009 — the national panic came along — we didn’t own anybody’s commercial paper. You know, we didn’t have money market funds. We have Treasury bills. And, as I may get into it a little later, I’ll explain to you why.

We would — we believe in having cash.

And there have been a few times in history, and there will be more times in history, where if you don’t have it, you know, you don’t get to play the next day. I mean, it’s just —

It’s like oxygen, you know? It’s there all the time. But if it disappears for a few minutes, it’s all over.

Gambling and investing are getting mixed up yet again. Sports gambling is growing. Short-dated options trading is growing. Crypto has many shady pockets. Remember that casino owners make reliable profits while feeding the gamblers with hope. Which side do you want to be on? Buffett noticed this as a 21-year-old newlywed visitor to Las Vegas:

They’d gone to great lengths to come out to do something that was mathematically unintelligent, and they knew it was unintelligent.

And, I mean, they couldn’t do it fast enough, in terms of rolling the dice, you know, and trying to determine whether they were hot or whatever they may be.

And I looked around at that group. And everybody there knew that they were doing something that was mathematically dumb, and they’d come thousands of miles to do it, and they were —

And I said to my wife, I said, you know, I’m going to get rich.

How to beat inflation? Invest in your own human capital.

But the best thing you can do is to be exceptionally good at something. If you’re the best doctor in town, if you’re the best lawyer in town, if you’re the best whatever it may be, no matter whether people are paying you with a zillion dollars or paying with — they’re going to give you some of what they produce in exchange for what you deliver.

And if you’re the one they pick out to do any particular activity, sing, or play baseball, or be their lawyer, whatever it may be, whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you, they can’t actually be inflated away from you.

Somebody else will give you some of the wheat they produce, or the cotton, or whatever it may be, and they will trade you for the skill you have.

So, the best investment by far is anything that develops yourself. And, again, it’s not taxed. (Applause) So that’s what I would do.

Find the intersection of something that interests you, something you have a talent for, and something that pays the bills.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well — if you stop to think about it, there are two things that neither one of us has ever succeeded at: One, we’ve never succeeded at anything that didn’t interest us, right?

WARREN BUFFETT: Right.

CHARLIE MUNGER: And we’ve never succeeded at anything that was really hard where we didn’t have much aptitude for it.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And we’ve been doing whatever we pleased for 60 years.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, we did.

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Coursera: Free Online Courses on Accounting and Finance

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One of my newer interests is better understanding individual businesses and how they work. Accounting is the “language of business” used to write annual reports, 10-Ks, 10-Qs, income statements, and so on. I was afraid a textbook would be too boring, so I am auditing the online Coursera course Financial Accounting Fundamentals by Professor Lynch of the University of Virginia. Here’s a quick summary of what is covered in the course:

Accounting is often called the language of business. It is this language that organizations use to communicate their economic performance to others. In this course, you will acquire the tools that you need to understand the fundamentals of accounting, the language of business.

You will learn to record business transactions in the company’s accounts, understand how they flow into the financial statements, and learn to draw basic conclusions about an organization’s financial health from the three most commonly used financial statements, the balance sheet, the income statement and the statement of cash flow. Are you ready? Then let’s go!

Auditing is completely free and lets you view all the materials and take “practice” quizzes, but you can’t take the “real” quizzes needed to earn the “shareable certificate” (which is fine with me as this is just for personal improvement and not future employment). The course assumes no prior knowledge, requires a commitment of roughly 2-3 hours per week, and lasts for 5 weeks. I finished the first week in about an hour and a half by watching videos at 1.25x speed. So far, I’ve enjoyed filling in the gaps in my knowledge.

This course is the first of a 4-part series by UVA called Entrepreneurship: Growing Your Business:

Welcome to Entrepreneurship: Growing Your Business, a new specialization from the Darden School of Business, University of Virginia. This Specialization was designed to give you the real-world tools and processes you will need to take your business from idea, to action, to growth and revenue. You’ll learn how to create budgets and read financial statements, how to lead with values, how to leverage new business models for growth and how to create new business innovations. Ideal for entrepreneurs, small business owners, and those who have a business plan but aren’t sure what to do next, Entrepreneurship: Growing Your Business will help you on the path to success for you, your business and society.

There are a few similar Coursera courses from UPenn Wharton and the University of Illinois.

I used to feel that I didn’t need to know any of this stuff (just buy a Target Date fund and work on your career, etc), but now I want to compound knowledge in this area as well. I’ll be able to use it for the rest of my life as a private investor living off of my portfolio. This is also related to working for yourself for an hour each day.

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Practical Time Management: The Won’t Do List vs. Must Do List

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80 years times 50 weeks a year is 4,000 weeks. If we’re lucky, that means we’ll have about 4,000 Mondays, 4,000 Saturdays, and that’s it. I’ve started reading Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman, which suggests that all those productivity hacks look at this number the wrong way. “If only you did X, you could fit in Y more stuff into your day and then you’ll be happy!” But the more likely result is that even if you do X, and fit in Y more stuff, you’ll remain just as stressed and unsatisfied.

In 1930, the economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that his grandkids would work just 15 hours a week due to increases in productivity. Well, the productivity per worker did increase, but we still work close to the same number of hours per week. We can have food delivered to our door with an few taps, but how many of us feel an abundance of free time? Even worse, we are “busy” but not because we are working on the things we want to be working on. We have an ever-growing “some day” list, so that we won’t have to face the truth that it is actually the “never” list.

So what’s the solution? This FT article Endless to-do list? Here’s how not to waste your life is an excerpt from the book. Here’s a good quote:

A truly practical approach to making the best use of time demands that we stop trying to deny the undeniable, acknowledging not merely that we might not get around to everything but that we definitely never will. That we’re guaranteed to have to abandon certain ambitions, disappoint certain people and drop certain balls in order to make time for doing a few things that count.

In the words of the creativity coach Jessica Abel, borrowing an insight from the world of personal finance, that means “paying yourself first” when it comes to time. What she means is doing at least a little of what you care about now, as opposed to banking on finding time for it in the future, once the decks are clear and life’s duties are out of the way. Life’s duties will never be out of the way. And so if you really mean it when you say you’d like to write a novel or spend more of your time with your ageing parents or fighting climate change, at some point you’re just going to have to start doing it.

We need to remind ourselves to drop the relatively unimportant things in order to elevate the truly important ones.

Turning this into something little more concrete, here is my proposal:

  • Won’t Do List. Identify 2-3 lesser things that “would be nice” to do, but will simply end up a distraction from the really important things. Give them up. Leave them off your To Do list forever.
  • Must Do List. Identify one thing that you really want to do but have been putting off for too long. Do it for an hour early in the day, even if it pushes other things out of the way. You must work on it, even a little. It’ll probably be hard, which is why you put it off earlier. You may even discover that you really don’t want to do it after all, but at least now you know and can move on. (This is similar to the Charlie Munger “work for yourself an hour each day” advice.)

On a daily basis, I try to cut out the following things to add some time to my day. I haven’t solved my huge pile of e-mail, but I have given up on “Inbox Zero”, check it less often, and am more at peace that I will miss some things the first time around. This isn’t right for everyone, but I also limit myself to an average of 15 minutes a day on Twitter, 5 minutes on Instagram, and zero minutes on Facebook and TikTok. Social media just reminds me of junk food that tastes great in the moment but has little nutrition and I’m hungry again in 20 minutes. I believe Twitter has the most useful information, but filtering can be time-consuming. (I need Instagram to know where my favorite food trucks are at.) I finally decided cut cable TV and gave up following most live sports in 2020. I will miss watching it, but it does free up a lot of time.

Bottom line. You can’t have it all. Don’t fit more in. Cut things out, and lift a few key things up. The finance/time analogy is that you can afford nearly any one thing, but you can’t afford everything. Trying to do everything will keep you “busy” until you run out of weeks:

(image credit: Financial Times)

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If Retail Investors Are Dumb Money, Who Is Raking Up All The Alpha?

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Here’s a follow-up to my post about the return gap of retail investors due to poor timing. For every seller of a stock share, there is a buyer. Therefore, if the timing of retail investors is reliably a little worse than average, we also know that someone else is on the other side of all those trades. Is there a group of non-retail investors that is reliably making money off the “dumb money” trades of retail investors?

Larry Swedroe digs into this question in his Advisor Perspectives article The Suckers at the Investment Table:

New research confirms that institutional investors, such as mutual funds, outperform the market before fees, and they do so at the expense of retail investors. That is bad news for retail investors and for investors in active mutual funds, who underperform after fees.

The research finds that the stocks and bonds individual investors buy go on to underperform and the ones they sell go on to outperform – demonstrating that retail investors are “dumb money.”

Unfortunately for fund investors, the same large body of evidence demonstrates that while mutual funds generate gross alpha, their total expenses exceed gross alpha, resulting in negative alphas for their investors.

If on average, an actively-managed mutual fund generates 0.7% of gross alpha, but after you subtract the expense ratio and trading costs which add up to nearly 1%, the net alpha is still negative. The active manager is the winner, taking all of the alpha for themselves in the form of relentless fees taken as a percentage of the entire asset base. The retail investor/customer still loses out. An fairer fee structure would be to take a larger percentage, but of the alpha only.

People will continue to argue about this, but I’m not surprised to see that these studies found alpha. It’s just much, much harder to do than most people think, and that’s exactly why you almost never see a fee structure based on alpha (thought they do exist). Even Charlie Munger, who is famous for his stock-picking skills and disagreement against the “hard” form of Efficient Market Theory, only says that the top 3% to 4% of professional investment managers will outperform (source):

I think it is roughly right that the market is efficient, which makes it very hard to beat merely by being an intelligent investor. But I don’t think it’s totally efficient at all. And the difference between being totally efficient and somewhat efficient leaves an enormous opportunity for people like us to get these unusual records. It’s efficient enough, so it’s hard to have a great investment record. But it’s by no means impossible. Nor is it something that only a very few people can do. The top three or four percent of the investment management world will do fine.

In the end, costs always matter. If you find a genius to pick stocks but they cost more than they help, then you still lose. The only actively-managed mutual funds that I have seriously considered buying are from Vanguard, which improves the odds with substantially lower expense ratios and a history of investor-friendly practices. As a DIY individual investor buying index funds, you can keep your head down and “grind out” reliably above-average returns over time due to the rock-bottom costs. (There, I fit in my own poker reference!) Even as a DIY individual stock investor, as at least I understand what I own and don’t have to pay a 1% management fee every year.

My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and may receive a commission from card issuers. Some or all of the card offers that appear on this site are from advertisers and may impact how and where card products appear on the site. MyMoneyBlog.com does not include all card companies or all available card offers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.