Buying Savings Bonds Now or Later? Two “Experts” Collide

Posted on October 26, 2005 // 8 Comments
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I guess the word has spread about the great I-Bonds rates, as is shown by this recent USA Today article. Unfortunately, this article does not help me at all, since the key to buying now or later is the upcoming fixed rate, and these two so-called experts can’t even agree on it. One says it may go down to 0.5%, the other one says 1.3-1.5%. Gee, thanks guys.

Filed Under: Banking //
Last updated: October 9, 2011
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Comments

  1. Ken @ bankdeals says
    October 26, 2005 at 11:05 am

    When the new rate is announced next Tuesday, we’ll know who the real expert is. My guess is that Adams will be right. Although this may be more wishful thinking than a prediction…

    Reply
  2. Anonymous says
    October 26, 2005 at 1:49 pm

    I think the fixed rate will rise BUT what you get after the 1st six months is an unknown, and I doubt you’ll get as much as 4.8%…

    So… if you don’t plan to hold the bonds much longer than a year, buying in October is a better bet.

    Reply
  3. Catie Fitzgerald says
    October 26, 2005 at 5:15 pm

    That’s the tough thing about the financial markets – it’s all guesswork even on the part of highly educated financial professionals. I spent 4 years as as stockbroker, most of it confused by the often conflicting opinions of the “experts” in my firm expressed regarding interest rates and the economy. I have a B.A. in Economics and read everything on the market I can get my hands on(approximately 100 a year). Eventually, I learned to stop relying on the “experts” and formulate my own opinion. So, what direction to you think interest rates are headed? Trust yourself.

    Reply
  4. anonymous says
    October 26, 2005 at 7:04 pm

    I say the fixed will pop to 1.75% and we already have a pretty accurate guess on the variable from the most recent CPI-U numbers.
    I say the bonds after Nov. 1 will be pushing into the high 6%’s.
    any other guesses out there?

    Reply
  5. Jack says
    October 26, 2005 at 8:30 pm

    I am also betting the fixed would be shooting at least 0.3% higher than current 1.2%, so I am holding my breath to buy in Nov. If I buy today at 4.8% for 6 months, the conservatively predicted 6.7~7.1% APR(based on the fixed estimated rate of 0.8%-1.2%) wouldn’t be effective until next April…

    Reply
  6. Ashley says
    October 27, 2005 at 5:17 am

    The CPI will be pushing rates higher (in the middle 6’s) due in large part to the energy inflation we have been seeing. If you think that this energy inflation is temporary and will recede in the next 12 months, you would be better to buy prior to November 1. This way you would lock in an average of 5.5% to 5.8% interest over the next 12 months. In deciding whether to buy now or after November 1, the real question you want to be asking yourself is, will the rate fall next May below the current 4.8%?

    Reply
  7. Anonymous says
    October 27, 2005 at 6:44 am

    I’ve seen the gas price rose from 2.39 to 2.69 to 3+ with Katrina. Recently, it dropped all the way down back to 2.37 today. The inflation will at least be relatively flat in the next few months.

    Reply
  8. Ty says
    November 1, 2005 at 7:39 am

    Well the wait is over. The new rates have been announced.

    1.00% – Fixed Rates
    2.85% – Inflation Rates

    6.73% – I Bond Earnings Rate

    http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/com/comi1105.htm

    Reply

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