After months of being stuck in the day-to-day issues of buying a house, moving, and work, I spent a lot of time today… daydreaming! Mainly because I am getting tired of only having 2-3 weeks of vacation per year, I went back to thinking about how early I can achieve financial freedom. Let’s say I really want to retire in 10 years by age 40. What do I need to do?
Part #1: Pay off the house
I’m not saying everyone should buy a house, but I have one and would psychologically love to have it paid off before I retire. For me, housing is by far my largest expense. Using this mortgage payoff calculator, I would need to increase my monthly payments by $2,500 per month to pay off my mortgage in 10 years. For a 20-year payoff, I would need only $600 per month in additional payments.
Part #2: Estimate remaining expenses
Things now simplify greatly. What else do I need to pay for in retirement? This is for two people, kids will increase some items. I will ignore scary things like college tuition. All costs are monthly with some padding.
- Food, both groceries and dining out: $600
- Communications + Utilities: $350
- Gas, not much need if retired: $100
- Transportation, amortized cost of one car: $150
- Housing maintenance plus property taxes: $350
- Clothing, Entertainment, Travel: $250
- Healthcare: ???
Total without healthcare: $22,000 per year. Note that this isn’t my barebones spending, this is about what we spend now, and what I’d be happy with indefinitely. Of course, we could do better.
So how much will health insurance cost? This is a huge unknown. We are relatively healthy now, but who knows. Let’s say you get an individual high-deductible health plan for $100/month per person and get cancer (knock on wood). Can the insurer drop you or raise rates? I don’t know the answer, but I’m guessing they can at least raise rates at some point.
It’s possible that within the next decade we will have some form of universal healthcare system. If not, we may need to investigate ways to get on a group plan somehow. I will put in a wild guess of $8,000 per year.
Total with healthcare: $30,000 per year (after-taxes)
Part #3: Set up portfolio to produce this income
Using current tax brackets, we will have to pay very little income tax to achieve an after-tax income of $30,000 per year. For federal taxes, the first ~$18,000 is not taxed at all, and the rest would be taxed at 10% (married filing jointly). That’s an overall tax rate of less than 5%. We have no pensions or other annuities, just maybe Social Security down the road.
(Side note: If I have no other income from sources like pensions or annuities, this means I should lean towards contributing to Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s exclusively right now instead of Roth’s since my tax rate in retirement should be very low – much lower than I might have guessed before.)
Anyhow, if I use a 4% withdrawal rate, I would need $750,000 in today’s dollars. I will start with the $120,000 I have now and estimating returns at 8% annually, with inflation at 3%. Using this savings calculator with a goal of $750,000 in 10 years, I would have to save $3,600 per month for 10 years, or $1100 per month for 20 years.
Bottom Line
I know this is all guesses upon guesses, but here’s what my back-of-the-envelope daydreams give me:
- To retire in 10 years, I would need $6,100 in excess income every month.
- To retire in 20 years, I would need $1,700 in excess income every month.
Retiring so early just doesn’t give compound interest enough time to work its magic. It will be tough to integrate all this with our actual goals. But this is still encouraging for me, as I love having even rough numbers in mind to provide something to reach for.
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Why would gas consumption drop if u retire?
In fact, u stay at home more, perhaps cook even more too?
What do u do to spend almost $2000 a month on health care?
Plus retired people emit more gas too 🙂
Don’t you think returns of 8% are a bit high?
350/month for maint and property taxes….Who has such a low property tax bill in the bay area that bought a house recently?
Now I’m going to have to calculate how much I would need to retire by 35. Just out of curiousity.
When you say $750K are you talking about net worth or liquid investments? Are you including your house? If you are including your house, you should add a cushion to the $750K to account for unexpected catstrophic events or subpar market returns.
I know this is a “daydream” but….
You would not want to pump up your traditional IRA or 401(k) b/c even though you view yourself as retired, the government won’t! You will get hit with a penalty for withdrawing pre 59 1/2 (notwithstanding 72t distributions).
If, however, and I KNOW I AM GOING TO GET ANGRY ANGRY RESPONSES – you were to pump up a Whole Life Insurance Policy with high early cash value (just short of MECing it – Google “Modified Endowment Contract) you could grab at that cash.
Just a few thoughts.
I really like the idea of scoping things out like that — whether they are possible or not — it’s nice to see the true number you need to reach.
And it’s nice that you are settled in a house where you want to stay. I’m not there yet, so I’m not looking into retiring just yet. But I would like to take more time off from work to be with my daughter. I would say that’s my goal for right now. I’m saving for retirement, but I’m not really dying to get there! I’d rather be on a nice sabbatical every year (like have the summers off) and all those vacations we used to get when we were in school. I want a teacher’s schedule, but I want to work as a computer progammer. Got any ideas for me?
I’d suggest not paying off the house. I just bought a house too – we have such a great interest rate. It is likely that we won’t get many opportunities to borrow money for so little. Even though it may be psychologically satisfying to pay it off, it may be a poor spending choice. I think it would be worth more in the bank – liquid – even earning a lower interest rate than you have on your mortgage.
Plus, the world is changing exponentially. A LOT is going to change in 30 years. The growth of information technology is doubling every year. This is going to have a profound impact on our lives.
This will present many opportunities and is another reason why I think it is wise to pay off as little of your mortgage as you can with such a low rate.
“For federal taxes, the first ~$18,000 is not taxed at all”
Perhaps I’m missing something, but the std. deduction for married filing jointly is only $10,900 – no ?
Great post! I too have spent many a day dreaming about retiring @ 40. I’m 29 right now and with a lot of debt and very little savings, it’s not going to be easy. I’m quite determined though so we’ll see:)
To retire early I think you’re probably going to have a make more money. The biggest problem with retiring early is the much longer drawdown period 🙁
I think the real key is being to transition from make a good income to a much lower but flexible income. Still trying to figure how to do that myself.
It seems like you are being *really* optimistic in these figures. I’m surprised your property taxes are so low. If accurate, I would not count on them staying that way. $250 for entertainment/travel/clothing? How does your wife feel about that? You would have to essentially never leave the house. $150 for a car? Doubt it. Someone will want a halfway decent car at some point. Even if you keep a $20,000 car for 10 years, that’s $166/month excluding any interest, repairs or car insurance! Housing maintenance can also be much more significant when you’ve been in your house for 10, 20, 30 years.
Even in the midwest, my taxes on the property work out to about $450 a month, how is that possible in California? And ur including maintenance as well.
In the last year alone, I have changed my furnace, appliances, garbage disposal etc, which easily has cost me over $300 per month on average.
Ugly, someone has told u that a housing loan is a ‘good’ loan, when the true fact is any loan that you pay interest on is not really a good thing. Shakespeare once said, neither be a borrower nor a lender.
If you won the lottery today, wouldnt u pay off ur mortgage?
If banks could do better things with their money, they wont be giving it out as loans at such interest rates. Do you even know that in the first 5 years or so, 90% of your monthly mortgage is PURE interest?
Heh. Good plan, just don’t have any kids. 🙂
xmasy,
If I won the lottery, I would not pay off my mortgage. In my own situation, the opportunity cost of investing makes up for the risk of losing the house. As a matter of fact, if I won the lottery I would probably take out a HELOC and max out the equity.
-Wes
What if you “retired” into a part time job at 40 years old. Even $10,000/year would go a long way to making the numbers work.
I agree that while your food budget parallels mine, your utilities seem to be extremely cheap. I spend about 500 a month throughout the year for a 2000 sq. ft house with Cell/Internet/Cable/Water/Sewer/Electric/Gas/Trash
I thought CA was expensive! It seems cheap to me.
350 for property taxes and housing seems extremely low to me, but I don’t know CA law for property taxes. Do the huge state taxes make up the bulk of the schools’ budgets?
Just what is your property tax rate (not exactly of course to not give away your location)?
I’d revisit this after one year of being in your house.
Expect those expenses to go up by 50% for each child up to 3.
CA has low property taxes but make it up with high income taxes (9.3% top rate) and sales tax (8.5%-9% depending on county).
One quick note – if you are planning on retiring in 10-20 years and you think you will need your retirement money right away, traditional IRAs and 401ks are actually a BAD idea because you cannot easily access the money until 59 1/2. However, if you think that you can live off of your ROTH IRA contributions + savings for the 10-20 years between when you retire and hit 59 1/2, then the tax savings do make it a good idea to contribute to the deductible retirement plans.
James, you can use a 72t distribution to avoid 10% penalty on IRA. You can’t contribute any more money to the IRA after you start 72t, but if he is going to retire for real, it is good. Otherwise, compute whether contributing to IRA saves you more than 10%.
IRA money (and therefore 401k money via rollover) can be accessed before 59.5; read on rule 72t and substantial equal periodic payments (SEPP). It’s not as easy as when you get to 59.5, but it is possible. Also, some 401k plans allow you to withdraw at 55.
Of course the problem with drawing from your retirement funds early is that you have less time to compound. I don’t plan to use 72t unless I get to 50 or 55 and am really stuck.
I agree that health insurance is the big unknown. I had some health issues last year; though I have no major ongoing problems, I’m not sure if I will be able to get a $150 / month high-deduct plan or not. I’ve resigned myself to paying for COBRA once I leave my job and that will give me 18 months to figure out what to do next.
Also, you have to figure that health care costs go up 10% per year, and that it also costs an additional 5% just because you’re a year older. I calculated that by looking at the rates BC/BS charges for each age range and have incorporated it into my 20 year projection.
You don’t have to retire completely. I’m sure you could find some satisfying part time work that could augment your savings. Maybe you could start a blog and sell advertizing :)?
Wes,
We need people like u to keep the economy flowing and keep the banking sector alive. Thanks
Wow, your house expenses are very low. Not sure how old your house is, but over time you will see that won’t be enough (property tax on a house at $325K is about what you listed here, so I’m not sure where you got that number… it’s ~1.5% of purchase price in Cali, so using a round number of $500K you get to $7500/year or $625/mo).
A faucet can cost you $100-350 (or more) easily… and if you need to replace some boards on a deck, or fix any little thing… it adds up. These are actually reasons I thought I’d never own a home… but things change and now I do (and am happy about it). Homes are good long term investments, but they also require maintenance and have unforeseen costs that can add up very quickly.
Always good to know what you want to live on at retirement, and believe me, we sit down all the time and do the math to figure out how soon we can do it. It’s fun, and like you said, definitely provides a good goal to reach!
You have seriously underestimated your health insurance costs, especially if you plan to have any kids.
Why put $2500 into mortgage payment now?
Using the same calculator, a $2500 monthly investment at 5% compound rate generates $387480 after 10 years.
Now at year 10 you start to withdraw $2500 monthly from $387480 and put it into mortgage payment. At year 20, you pay off all mortgage (based on your current calculation), assuming the rate is the same, and even if you have the same principle at year 10 as today.
And even if $387480 does not grow at all, at year 20 you still have $387480 – ($2500*12*10) = $87480 in pocket. If it grows at 5% during the 10 years, you end at around $230k in pocket at year 20.
BTW, kids are big expense (or, maybe big investments? :).
I also like these calculators:
http://www.hughchou.org/calc/
The one you’d probably want to look at is the retirement calculator:
http://www.hughchou.org/calc/annuity.php
We’re trying to plan for a “mini-retirement” when our youngest child gets to be 5 or so, which puts it about 4 years out. We’d like to hike a lot of the world and take our children with us. There is so much planning to do on so many different levels.
Your monthly expenses seem to reflect about what we’re estimating ours to be, except that there will be housing budgeted into ours, we rent now and probably won’t buy in the next few years.
I’m wondering why you are not planning on any income at all? Don’t you have some coming in through things like this website? We still plan on having some income coming in even if my husband quit his dayjob.
Your 4% withdrawal rate may be too high if you’re planning to retire at 40. Look at Fidelity’s Guidelines for Setting Withdrawal Rates page (URL below)– If you take money out at an inflation adjusted 4%, there’s a 90% chance your money will last 27 years.
http://personal.fidelity.com/planning/retirement/content/withdrawal_rate.shtml
Your plan looks really optimistic! But it is nice to someone living frugally and planning for the future, whether or not it is completely realistic.
As for healthcare, we’ve been healthy, with only one checkup each. Then last year I got sick and my son got sick. That translates into two extra Dr. visits and two prescriptions. Our insurance went up more than $100 a month! Even though we didn’t come close to using as much as we paid in premiums…
I have my house paid off and boy is it not worth it. Seems like the risk takers get rewarded with gvmt bailouts and rate reductions. Not having a loan seems like a foolish mistake in hindsight.
Optimistic outlook. If you try really hard and remember ur goal every step, it may be do-able. If not in 10 yrs – u could easily retire in 15.
Kids will have a big upward influence on these numbers….
Have you considered the impact of inflation? I’m not suggesting that should derail your plan, but it is a factor I think you should consider.
I’m also planning to retire quite early, but I’m considering some creative options to help make it possible, like living abroad for the first 10 years (maybe Mexico or Belize) while renting out my house in the U.S, or phasing into retirement by working part-time from home for the first few years.
Many things are optimistic, I know. Even at a 3% withdrawal rate, in reality I’d probably be worried about running out of money for some reason or another. I like the idea of partially buying immediate annuities (not variable), but then I need a lump sum.
On the other hand, I seriously doubt I would not to do any work at all at 40, I’d probably be bored out of my mind. I could also do a reverse mortgage at age 60 if I spend too much between 40 and 60.
The real question is would u want to retire? I sat on my butt for a month and i got bored. I used to think of retirement as a pancea but i think its overrated. i mean what about working part time? If you consider that into your equation, then wouldn’t you need less money?
Just a thought. I’ve become less worried about retirment after i realized I wouldn’t retire fully just cut down to part time.
ps- did my rtw ticket info help?
I don’t know a lot of details about your situation, so it’s hard to say for certain…but I seriously doubt you are properly accounting for depreciation with those sorts of numbers.
For example: $1800/year total cost of vehicle. Even if you drive only 5K miles per year, then at 25 mpg, that is $650/year in gas. You know over time you’re going to have to shell out a couple hundred a year for maintenance, and you’ve got auto insurance to buy as well. So I’m not seeing much in the way of depreciation allowance here…
Another example: $4200/year total cost of property tax and home maintenance. You have a $640K house. In nearly every jurisdiction of this country, a $640K house will yield close to or above $4K in property taxes, so I’m guessing you are only factoring in minor repair jobs that crop up from time to time. However, your roof, furnace, hot water heater, pipes, siding, carpet, chimney cap, A/C, washer/dryer, etc, etc, etc, are slowly depreciating. It is surprising how much it all adds up.
I know you know all this stuff, and that the article was intended to be optimistic. I’m just pointing out that it’s probably VERY optimistic!
xmasy – You don’t use a bank? That’s odd.
Personal snipes aside, can you provide a mathematical/financial argument for not having a mortgage vs. having a mortgage?
-Wes
That’s funny, Jonathan, I didn’t think you’d be interested in reverse mortgages. I’d really like to hear more about these — I know a lot fo seniors who are actually going for these now. But isn’t there a a huge downside? It seems like equity could be drained out of your home in a flash. Do you really get to live there for nothing after the equity is gone? I’d really like to know more.
I have an interesting twist for everyone. I am 44, living in wisconsin. Own my home and car (both paid off). my home is older but updated so not much outgoing at this point. property taxes are 150/month. Have a great high deductible health plan, non-cancelable at 110/month ($3000 deductible) have HSA to cover 3 bad years already) but healthy and preventative is covered: free. Bought a new 2007 jeep compass (paid cash), new warranty for life and paid a little extra for bumper to bumper llifetime coverage with $0 deductible. so for the most part, a life long vehicle with unlimited coverage. (I know tires and midas brakes (lifetime brakes) in the future, oil and expensive gas). I eat out with friends (entertainment book) and love to cook. Anyway, I have a good amt of interest income from “safe” investments (AAA rated, insured averaging 5.9%….. stopped working and trying to live off the interest only…. I currently have a budget available of 90/day but only spending 48/day. I do travel, cheaply but frequently. I believe it can be done. I worked 2 jobs for 20+ yrs, modest salary.. spent way less than earned..saved a lot….loved what i have done….enjoying the break and maybe will get something part-time in 10 years, if needed.
I realize my single life is not everyones dream but have a great circle of friends and a long term partner with also bought a jeep…our neighbors did too!!! We got a GREAT deal. Best of luck to others.
Years ago I read a book called ‘Cashing in on the American How to retire at 35″. Out of print and in some ways outdated as the funding mechanism was laddered CDs (written back in 1990, when interest rates were higher). But some of the ideas I put into effect in my own life – living below your means is the primary one. I did the same type of calculation Johnathan has done 17 years ago. I Wish I still had the details, but the goal I set was $1.3 MM in liquid assets which was supposed to fund the retirement without dipping into principle. The spending estimates I made back then were pretty optimistic. Whether or not you decide to retire early, it’s certainly nice to feel like you have the option to walk away should you want to do so.
This is an interesting exercise.
I think the health-expenses estimate is much too low – it may be as low as you’re estimating for another decade or so, but as you get older, it will more likely than not reach many times this amount.
(Speaking both as a health professional, and as someone currently in the middle of helping aging parents sort through the impact of recent health crises on their finances…)
One problem. inflation. not on the your savings rate because you accounted for it, but on the interest you plan to earn. If you earn a 4% return on $750,000 there is your $30,000 per year. At an inflation rate of 3%, your cost of living will double between ages 40 and 60 (just a guess). So you really need a nest egg than can 1) provide current income and 2) proivde growth from 40 till 60s or 70s when you can start drawing down on your savings.
Regarding inflation –
1) For the house, it doesn’t matter because my payments are already fixed. If anything, it’s an inflation hedge.
2) For the savings part, I first estimated (perhaps too low) my income needed in today’s dollars.
Now, when I used the savings calculator, I only assumed a return of 5%. This is my estimated inflation-adjusted, or “real”, return. (8% nominal – 3% estimated inflation). Of course 5% might not be right, but I did definitely account for inflation.
After reviewing the comments so far, I really feel that any of us need to have some things paid for (house and car – transportation) and also being flexible to downsize, eliminate or reduce costs in some way. Their is always uncertainey in life – we can only plan so much, but the good things is that you do not have to stay retired. Retiring early or taking a break allows me to do things now and returning to work if needed or maybe just wanting to. It will allow me to work at a “fun” type of job. I would supplement my income to pay for things needed not debt for crap i do not need though out my life.
Speaking as a parent, I’m not sure that “ignoring scary things” like kids is a sure path to financial disappointment (unless, of course, you’re dead set against having them).
I wouldn’t pay off your house if I were you unless you like paying top dollar as the dollar devalues.
If the dollar was a stable currency, then paying off your mortgage would be a great idea.
Since the value of the dollar keeps declining, all you are doing is throwing good money prior to its devaluation.
I say you should pay the least amount of money possible on your Mortgage as long as the dollar devalues. If deflation begins, then pay the max you can.
Yielding 10% a year on your investments is useless since the loss of purchasing power of your dollar is greater than 10% per year.
Of course, most people do not get it unless they have lived through hyperinflation. I am fortunate to have lived through the harsh times of hyperinflation as a kid.
The worst time to live through hyperinflation is when you bringing in the most money since it will soon lose its purchasing power.
Hey Jonathan;
I applaud the exercise, you’ve now successfully figured out how much income you’d need to live your current lifestyle under the assumption that you’re going to replace your 50+ hour workweek with sitting around at home (50+ hours based on working in computers in the bay area).
The problem with the exercise is that it’s only half right. You estimated your expenses to retire and “do nothing”, but you’re never going to “do nothing” (or at least you won’t be doing it for long) so you pretty much botched the whole exercise b/c the two halves of your equation don’t balance. You can’t just take your life, remove 50+ hours of daily work and then call that retirement.
You’ve already stated that you wanted to travel, but you recently sucked out and took the travel goal off of your mid-term goal ticker. Your annual savings exceed the average US income (even for your area) and you’re lamenting the lack of vacation time:
Mainly because I am getting tired of only having 2-3 weeks of vacation per year
Good God! Ask for another 2 weeks of unpaid vacation, you can actually afford it! Here are two scenarios:
1. You can save 100k / year and wait until you’re both 40 & 50 to do something you’ve dreamed about or
2. You can save 85k / year (each taking off two unpaid weeks) and spend 2-4 weeks doing one really cool thing every year and still “retire” before you’re 60. Except now you’ll have done 30 years worth of really cool stuff. Heck you’ll probably be less tired of work b/c you’ll actually get a reasonable amount of time off.
If/when you have kids, which one do you think they’ll prefer?
I have to say that to retire early would definatly be a dream come true for a lot of people.
You definatly show just about all of the costs that you will still have to pay for when your retired and it isn’t so easy with prices rising constantly.
The only way to retire early would have to be to start saving for your retirement while your young. Investing in shares would definatly be a great way to keep your assets high while not working.
Well done with all the shares that you have collected, they will go great with your retirement, and will certainly make the retirement more enjoyable.
Funny, I just spent all day Saturday coming up with a 10 year plan to retire to California in 10 years! I am 48 and live in Ohio.
I came up with about the same numbers, I have no savings currently, just raised 3 kids and now a grandchild for another 10 years.
I need to save at least 4k per month to make it happen starting in November at a safe 3% + return. My home will be paid off in 8 years and I will sell it and everything in it.
My husband works for me. I am in sales. I have a eBay store and a website. My plan is to increase my sales to a level that I can transfer at LEAST 1k every Friday to my savings for 10 years on top of my current budget. Hopefully I can save a little more as I think we will need more to be safe.
SSI will not kick in for a while so that is my concern and the medical coverage in 10 years, not sure where that will be for age 58.
I really hope I can make this plan work. It will be a lot of hard work for 10 years. We still need to enjoy life during this time too as you never know when your time is up.
Good luck to all!
I just can not understand why any USA companies will not pay the workers of there company. A great life style” we make the world feel better at heart. Let take care of our people frist ” Let be happy with our life time. let just make everbody feel happy That all World grow with use . We can make the world better .
Let take care of our life style frist and other will com. USA .
There are a lot of things that cannot be predicted. Cost of medical care, Social Security benefits and eligibility for Social Security, inflation, and unpredictable expenses like auto repairs and home repairs.
It’s a great idea to plan as carefully as possible for the future. Many people dream and would love to retire in 10 years or less. The problem is they get so caught up in the day-to-day issues of life that they don’t spend the time to plan for their retirement.
If someone wants to retire in 10 years or less. It’s important that they work backwards from that date and plan each year accordingly. Know how much you will need by using retirement calculators and understanding the lifestyle you wish to maintain during retirement. Understand also that people are living longer due to medical advances and you will be in retirement longer than your ancestors if you plan well.
No one can predict exactly how much they will need for retirement and that’s why it is important to have more than you think you will need. Starting today, you can make retirement a reality. If you are struggling to save the money you need, look for a way to earn money part time or full time. Grow your money faster than you have grown it before. Reduce expenses where possible. Pay off your home so you won’t need to worry about that mortgage in your retirement years. Having more money than you think you need will provide you with a lot of options and peace of mind.
Making it a priority to save money will be a big first step for anyone who doubts they can retire comfortably. People tend to spend more than they make and saving money becomes impossible.
Looking for money-saving and money-making opportunities should be on the top of the list for anyone concerned or would like to retire in 10 years.
Hello everyone. Checking in and still enjoying retirement. My budget
Is still working out. One item has been health insurance. Needed
To increase my plan from $3000 to $5000 deductible. Paying
$112/month. I “work” hard to keep a healthy lifestyle. So
Far no major issues! I do have an Hsa health acct. W/ enough
To cover 5 bad years in a row. Haven’t needed to work yet.
It’s all about watching expenses and staying within your
Budget. Did get a roommate to help with expenses. I’m
Putting the rent money away after paying the addl utilities.
You can even save money in retirement! 🙂
i think you can retire with in 10 years but just not the normal way (401k just wont work)…
you have to sit and brain storm a plan…
but not a traditional plan…
you really have to think outside of the box
my plan is to buy a duplex in a couple of year, rent out one side and live in the other
then i will hurry up and pay of the mortgage as soon as possible… retire rent free with an rental income from the duplex… then quit my job and probably start a small business…
but all in all you have to come up with a plan that works 4 u and then put that plan in action and don’t let anyone stop u