I’m going to Vegas! I haven’t been in several years, so I wanted to brush on my gambling knowledge. Of course we all know that the vast majority of games have what is called a “House Edge”, which means that over the long run the casino will be profitable. But not all games and bets are created equal. Since I love numbers, I decided to compile some ways to achieve the best odds in a casino. This way, you’ll increase your chances of winning the short term, or at least extend the time between ATM visits 🙂
Odds Explained
A 95% expected return, or a House Edge of 5%, is the same as saying that on each bet you are expected only to receive 95 cents out of every dollar you bet. This does not mean if you walk up the table with a $100 bankroll, you will leave out with $95. You will most likely bet a lot more than $100 since you will win many hands as well. If you play 50 hands per hour, after 4 hours at $5 each that’s $1000 in bets. With a 5% House Edge, on average you would have lost $50. The more hands you play, the more you are expected to lose. This is why good blackjack dealers deal so fast.
So besides playing inherently slower games or simply playing less, here are a few ways to get the best odds:
Bets Requiring No Skill
This includes scenarios where the best odds are achieved when you simply make the same move every time. (Actually, the best odds here are achieved by not gambling at all…)
Although the table is very cluttered, the best bet is actually very simple. Just put your money on the Don’t Pass/Don’t Come line and the House Edge is a mere 1.36%. You won’t be very popular, however, as you are betting on the roller to “crap out”. Since this is such a social game, it may be worth it to bet on the Pass/Come line instead – the House Edge is only slightly worse at 1.41%.
Although Baccarat has the reputation of being a “high-class” game, the ideal betting is remains straightforward. If you bet on the banker every time, the House Edge is a mere 1.06%.
Bets Requiring Some Skill
The main skill you need here is memorization. For each situation, there is always a single correlating “correct” move.
If you memorize Basic Strategy, the house edge in a normal six-deck shoe is about 0.6%. Keep in mind that the strategy changes slightly with all the small variations between blackjack games. Read up on how the rules on when you can split, double down, surrender, and more affect the odds. Never buy insurance. You can even practice learning online.
If you’re going to stare at a computer screen alone, you should play video poker. Unlike slot machines, you can actually figure out your odds of winning based on the payout schedule which must be displayed on each machine. If you find a “full play” machine and memorize the correct moves for each combination of cards, you can theoretically achieve a negative House Edge of up to -0.76%. Keep in mind this takes into account getting the Royal Flush, which pays 800 to 1. However, if you practice a bit, you can whittle the House Edge down to less than 0.5%. (I don’t know of any free sites that help teach you Video Poker, do you?)
Bets Requiring Significant Skill
If you are willing to put in the required of time and effort, poker may be a good idea. You are competing directly with other people, with the casino making their money by taking a small percentage of each pot. Tournaments can be a fun way to minimize your losses.
Another practice that can gain you a slight advantage over the house is Blackjack with card-counting. This takes into account that a blackjack deck has a “memory” – that is, what cards have been shown will affect the probabilities of what cards will be shown. Not only do you have to be mentally sharp and pay continuous attention to every single card shown, you have to do it all without letting the casino know you are doing it, as they’ll kick you out. Card counting typically gives the player an advantage of 0.5 to 1.5% over the house.
Of course, Vegas isn’t all about the odds. I personally like Craps (not just pass), Blackjack (no counting), and the sportsbook the best. Provide your own Vegas tips below!
References: Wikipedia – Baccarat, Craps, Blackjack, Video Poker
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It should be noted that by “taking the odds” in craps on correspondingly reduces the house’s odds, however, this neccesitates one playing with a larger bankroll than if one did not take the odds…
see the following website for a nice chart outlining the reduction of the house advantage as a function of odds-taking…
cheers and have fun!
(and, please, remember to tip the dealers every once and a while… luck, my friend, can be bought through feigning generosity…)
Jonathan,
A great way to “make” money while playing craps is to have a rewards card. Check your card with the dealer when you start to play and then make sure to tip the dealers frequently and obviously. Play a few of the long shots for the dealers and a few other things. The dealers will let you know what they want for the most part, and it is pretty amazing how fast the rewards add up. Normally, you can get a few meals out of it with very little time at the craps table.
Have fun.
My wife & I just got back from my first trip to Vegas a couple weeks ago.
For your first bet, I suggest tipping the clerk at the hotel registration desk $20 or more, talking it up a little and asking for a complimentary upgrade. I booked the cheapest room at Caesar’s Palace and right before our trip there were NO rooms available.
I was upgraded to the new Augustus Tower with a Bellagio fountain view. I tipped $100 and actually got the first night comp’d, so this bet made me the $600 difference in room price (when I booked) + $140 for my first night. Not a bad gamble. (huge thread on fatwallet travel about ‘front desk tipping’).
We’ve gambled on cruises before and are OK with the ‘take only what you are prepared to lose-consider it entertainment-try to lose money the slowest’ philosophy.
We took $2500 to burn on anything requiring cash. We started with card table games and I ended up getting lucky on a random slot pull (tried the $25 slots in Bellagio – put in $100 got out $500). I continued playing $5 slots the rest of the trip and did very well. I played a $5 with double credits to max the jackpot so each pull/button push was $10. We left Vegas with $5000 in cash and this will fund our next vacation – wahoo! 🙂 I was very lucky. I covered all my wife’s losses (who wasn’t very lucky). My biggest single win was $500 but I was on fire the last 3 nights and would hit $225, 250 and $500 a few times some nights.
My strategy – put in your comfortable limit for a session at a machine (I was Ok with $100 a pop). I would play until I went over $150 in credits, which didn’t happen every time. Once I was there, I would print a ticket for the amount left in the machine. I would go through up to $500 at a time when this method was working for me. Since these machines don’t dump money anymore (these all printed a cash-out ticket) it was easier for me to walk away with those winnings. My daily spend limit was always $500.
Win or lose, its about fun and gambling only what you’re prepared to lose. Also, don’t forget to get Player’s Cards anywhere you gamble. It might get you a coupon in the mail for your next trip!
The beauty of having a blog is the fact that you have posted your net worth on line! This should keep the gambling in check while in Vegas!
Have a blast and remember … we’re all watching the net worth meter!
Counting in Blackjack is not as useful any more because all casinos are using continuous shufflers. They load several decks into the machine and then put cards back in the back side as they leave play. The only exception is single-deck blackjack, but that gets shuffled after every hand, so you can’t adjust your wager based on the count there either.
I was in Vegas two years ago for a trade show and played Blackjack with my buddy, and I have no clue at all how I ended up making about $250.
If you lay “odds” after betting the pass or don’t pass line on the come out roll, the house edge is 0% and its the only “even” bet you can get in the entire place.
My personal favorite is counting playing blackjack. Requires quite a bit of discipline (stay away from the free booze!). It also makes a good story when you get kicked out after upping your bet from betting 5-$10 for a couple hours then suddenly to $300 on the next hand and winning.
i like blackjack
or texas hold em…where is that on ur list? that game requires the most skill
Wizard of Odds is a good site with expected offs and practice games.
http://wizardofodds.com/
Whoops! in the comment above… offs = odds
When are you going. My GF and I will be there the week of april 2nd. We’re long time readers, and would love to buy you dinner at the Restaurant.com of your choice! 😉
I’m a big fan of roulette. The house edge is high (5.26%), but it’s also a relatively slow game. I usually bet high on the outside covering about 63% of the board. When you win it’s slow, but I’ve done well.
Maybe this is silly, but penny slots work for me. I don’t go to Vegas with more money than I can afford to lose and I’m not going with the intent to come home rich. I found that with penny slots I don’t lose as much money and the sound the slots make when you win is just as exciting to hear as when playing the higher money slots. But my big thing is video poker, I seem to have good luck with it and always max bet for the biggest payouts.
there’s an article in the latimes about how the vegas casinos are changing the rules of blackjack to tip the odds a bit more in their favor.
link
To me, having fun is a big part of gambling. I only do it once or twice a year, and more often than not, it will be craps, roulette, blackjack and video poker.
There are fewer games of chance more fun than when the dice are rolling your way in craps. I could play for hours on a few hundred dollars. I only have one rule…when you double your money, walk away.
To me, blackjack comes down to gee…should I hit on a 12 or not when the dealer shows a 7 or higher. I don’t call that fun. But I often win.
Roulette is a blast. I only go there when I feel lucky…and you have a decent chance to walk away with a pocketfull of cash.
Video poker is how I either spend the last of it…or if I’ve made money, I “round down” to the nearest hundred and play with the remainder.
Great blog by the way…
Also, I think roulette…betting on red or black has good odds. But the red and black can mess u up BIG TIME if are not disciplined. I personally have seen red appear for about 25 times.
I have seen ‘average’ gamblers losing thousands on red/black.
I used to gamble a lot and everytime i lose, i consider it tax for stupidity. Thats the way i console myself.
Don’t forget about the odds bet in Craps. It is the only bet that I know of without a house edge. If you play at a 10X odds craps table and put $5 down on the pass line with a $50 odds bet behind it, your theoretical loss is 1.41% of $5 or $0.07 for the $55 bet. It is a good way to win or lose lots of money without donating too much cash (on a statistical basis) to the casino. In fact, the casinos lose money on this sort of player due to comps / free drinks, etc…. However, very few people can resist throwing chips on the fun and profitable (for the casino) bets such as the hard ways or the horn. Below are the combined house edge on the pass line and taking odds. I got this information off some website. I think the site was gambling wizard of something.
1X odds
0.848%
2X odds
0.606%
Full double odds
0.572%
3X odds
0.471%
3-4-5X odds
0.374%
5X odds
0.326%
10X odds
0.184%
20X odds
0.099%
100X odds
0.021%
And here is a summary of the various place number bets for quick comparison.
Bet
Description
Pays
House Edge
Big 6 6 before 7
1-1
9.09%
Big 8
8 before 7
1-1
9.09%
Buy 4 – Commission always paid
4 before 7
39-21
4.76%
Buy 5 – Commission always paid
5 before 7
29-21
4.76%
Buy 6 – Commission always paid
6 before 7
23-21
4.76%
Buy 8 – Commission always paid
8 before 7
23-21
4.76%
Buy 9 – Commission always paid
9 before 7
29-21
4.76%
Buy 10 – Commission always paid 10 before 7 39-21 4.76%
Buy 4 – Commission paid on win
4 before 7 39-20 1.67%
Buy 5 – Commission paid on win
5 before 7
29-20
2.00%
Buy 6 – Commission paid on win
6 before 7
23-20
2.27%
Buy 8 – Commission paid on win
8 before 7
23-20
2.27%
Buy 9 – Commission paid on win
9 before 7
29-20
2.00%
Buy 10 – Commission paid on win 10 before 7 39-20 1.67%
Hard 4
Hard 4 before 7 or easy 4
7-1
11.11%
Hard 6
Hard 6 before 7 or easy 6
9-1
9.09%
Hard 8
Hard 8 before 7 or easy 8
9-1
9.09%
Hard 10
Hard 10 before 7 or easy 10
7-1
11.11%
Lay (4)
7 before 4
19-41
2.44%
Lay (5)
7 before 5
19-31
3.23%
Lay (6)
7 before 6
19-25
4.00%
Lay (8)
7 before 8
19-25
4.00%
Lay (9)
7 before 9
19-31
3.23%
Lay (10)
7 before 10
19-41
2.44%
Place (4)
4 before 7
9-5
6.67%
Place (5)
5 before 7
7-5
4.00%
Place (6)
6 before 7
7-6
1.52%
Place (8)
8 before 7
7-6
1.52%
Place (9)
9 before 7
7-5
4.00%
Place (10)
10 before 7
9-5
6.67%
I totally forgot to include buying the odds in craps! It makes you bet more, but the odds are better. I do it on the cheaper tables 🙂 I agree, craps is a ton of fun!
I’ll be there mid-April. 🙂
Perfect timing for the article! I head out there next week for a vacation. Thanks for the links so I can brush up. I will definitely be playing some Black Jack, since that is about the only thing I’ve been able to win money at (might have to try craps this time around).
Oooo…a popular topic for so many of us! 🙂
Craps for that (unfortunately, rare) rush of havind the entire table winning and high fiving, blackjack for when you feeling like concentrating, and the sports book for when you want the money to last longer! Many, you got me dreaming of my next trip.
Two things: the hotel you pick to gamble at is important, especially with craps, where you want to be around a fun crowd. Also, I think the player’s club card causes aberrant betting behavior (in myself, at least)–why make extra bets just to get a free buffet? Furthermore, I find it annoying when I fret about getting enough points, etc.
HUGE HUGE HUGE fan of gambling here – but you have to go with Hold em. THE HOUSE HAS NO ODDS!
Its a game of skill and if you don’t know what you are doing you may not be giving your money to the house, but you’ll be giving it away !
The best bet in Vegas is the $20 trick at registration. There is a huge thread on this in fatwallet travel forums.
I did this a few weeks ago and was upgraded from Caesar’s Palace standard room to an Augustus Tower view of Bellagio Fountains. It was a $600 upgrade for the 5 days when I booked and only a $20 risk.
Trick is to slip a $20 between your credit card and ID upon check-in. Make sure the clerk is aware of your tip, chat it up a bit and ask for a complimentary upgrade.
Good luck!
It is true that the house has no odds in Hold Em but they do take a rake of 5% of so out of every hand. That does make your odds of coming out ahead a little longer.
I think one of the most important financial tips is NOT to simply go for the bet with the most favorable odds, because often they require you to multiply the base bet. And the only reason your edge increases is because of a long shot factor, which you’ll probably never hit. So the casino basically tricked you into spending more money.
For example, slots will often allow you to participate in the megajackpot if you bet the max, which of course decreases house edge. But the chances of you getting the megajackpot are slim, so you ended up spending 3x as much money.
Evan: of course the house has an advantage in poker. It’s called the rake. whether you win or lose, you will be forking over 5-10% of each bet to the house. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rake_(poker)
If you’re a math-nerd-type like me, you may enjoy the analyses at the Wizard of Odds website (see for instance http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack) — he has done a ton of statistical analyses of various combinations of rules.
Don’t play anything but poker. All other games are -EV.
Great post Jonathan. I haven’t been to Vegas for a couple of years, but with spring break coming up I might just have to make a trip out there. I usually stick to the slots and enjoy the “free” beer, but I think I’ll take your advice and try some more promising games.
I’m considering entering some hold-em tournaments just for kicks, but the few I’ve entered online I haven’t done too well. Those were mainly freeroll tournaments, though. I just don’t want to make a fool of myself with the betting and all that. Maybe if I can convince some friends to join me 🙂
Definately practice Texas Holdem first with a group of friends. I think it would be fun to play in Vegas, but like you I would not want to make a fool of myself either. But get a couple of beers in my and it won’t matter either way lol
Real hold-em tournements are much different than online free roll…
People don’t go all in every hand and are generally much more conservative seeing how it’s real money.
I’ve found that most of my desire for risk-taking is salved with a small low-stakes poker group. In our group the buy-in for a stack of chips is $20. Bets and raises are $1 limit, and there is a 3 raise limit (so no round can cost you more that $4 and most rounds are substantially cheaper than that).
We have a lot of variety at our game, playing dealer’s choice. Because of the low limits, there is less interest in Texas Holdem than in other groups. We tend to favor high-low games with multiple betting rounds (i.e. things like 7 card stud high-low). It is a very low-risk way to get introduced to a wide variety of poker games.
Generally the big losers and big winners are out (or up) no more than an evening at the movies and we often play for as long as 6 hours. So you get a lot of entertainment for pretty little expense, even if you aren’t winning.
All in all, I can’t say that I’ve actually come out ahead playing. I know I’ve won more than I lost, but it has been so interesting that I’ve spent a good bit of my winnings on poker books or supplies.
I do personally believe something about playing poker is helpful training for considering stock purchases. That occurred to me when I was reading balance sheets of a particular (kind of obscure) stock. I had the same feeling that I get when I’m holding a full house. I know there’s no guarantee that I’ll win, but I know I’ve got a pretty good chance.
the idea of going to vegas to make money is ludicrous. the odds, regardless of game, of you making money is far lower than the odds of the game. also remember that house edge is just that, it isn’t between you and the house: it’s between the house and everyone playing in the house.
so, set a limit (remember your budget) and have fun. i second the player’s cards. it doesn’t matter really if you play nickels or $100 blackjack. the idea is longer term for whatever you are playing. the problem with the quicker games, is you either need to be lucky so you bet for a long time, or you have to have large bankroll to play alot in order to get the freebies. so use them cards to get your freebies like meals and shows.
if you are a compulsive person or have any other addictions, stay away from gambling. as with credit cards and such, don’t take out markers that you cannot afford (yes, they count as bounced checks if you cannot cover them), and don’t spend more than you have budgeted.
VEGAS. Remember the motto: Whatever happens in Las Vegas, stays in Vegas. Or, whatever you bring to Vegas, somehow stays in Vegas too; unless you have lady luck and correct gaming strategies. First, i assume your airfare is free from your miles’ rewards. For hotel, are you staying at the cheapest strip casino (such as circus circus, sahara, tropicana, and excalibur), or somewhat upper scale? Second, “…know when to fold, know when to walk away, and know when to run…”–K.Rogers. Third, ATM fees in casinos are probably outrageous. Expect minimum $3 atm machine fees. Fourth, having personal limits is extremely important; and, if you only have $200, it’s probably not wise to go to a $25minimum table. You’re correct about the house edge. What’s interesting, even though the house edge for craps and blackjack seem low, you have to remember about variation. There’s huge standard deviations. There’s actually a forum somewhere online that has info about several casino games; search it if interested. Lastly, if you are looking for playing with alot of your personal, hardworking, hardearning money, it may be more convenient to do what Tim says: opening up a marker with casino. In essence, it’s kind of a credit BUT you provide the casino with your ID, SSN, Bank checking account # & info. When you goto casino, you get your “marker” amount at the table game from the pit boss. You sign a form that is technically a check. No fees involved. I’ve seen this only at high limit tables, where a player requests like $1k or $5k. (this way they dont carry cash on their trip, no atm fees or cash advance fees.)
Forgot to mention: Good Luck, and let us know about your trip and all; possibly with pics of scenery, the casino floor, and maybe your chip stacks during a game!
Hi Kassy, my folks love the penny slots. It’s funny ’cause those penny slots cost a fortune to maintain meaning the payouts are a lower too. But they have a blast and take their time — and if they played just as long on the quarter slots, they probably wouldn’t be able to eat as well there!
I have a question. If folks go into Vegas with the attitude that you’re going to lose, does that lead people to take riskier bets?
The reason why… I used to budget how much I was going to lose. Then I did an experiment on myself where I expected to break even after a certain period of time. (Though I wouldn’t be disappointed if I didn’t.) I ended up taking less “what the heck” bets and actually started coming out ahead (even without comps). Curious.
Steve, if you are going to gamble you should go from the viewpoint that it is entertainment. when you go out to the movies or dinner, you are expecting to spend a certain amount of money for that entertainment. you not necessarily are going thinking you are going to be a “loser”, you go with the mindset that you are paying for entertainment. there is lots of psychology involved in gambling and casinos, from lots of mirrors, to no windows, to lighting, to colors, to music, to air conditioning, drinks, etc. people have different tolerance levels for risk that may make them make technically wrong decisions because money is involved rather than making a bet based off of what is statistically better to do.
SavingEverything: I did NOT recommend taking out markers. On the contrary, markers are a bad habit that can land you into serious financial and legal trouble. just like the casinos make it difficult for you to cash in by making you play with chips or tokens and then have to actually cash in for real money, you should create your own extra measures to prevent spending over what you’ve budgeted for your vegas entertainment. markers are too easy to ask for, and you could face felony charges if you bounce one. additionally, if you somehow insufficient funds, the casino will continue to try and access those marker funds which exposes you to associated insufficient fund fees from your bank as well as the casino.
Just got to get this out….
I play blackjack quite a bit where I’m from and usually do pretty well. Don’t know how to explain it really – can just feel when I’m on a roll. And usually feel when it’s time to leave the table and cash out.
I wonder how many idiots do what I did this last trip to Vegas. Mostly played blackjack.
First night = no gambling. Too exhausted from the travel out there.
Second morning – Won $250. Later (much later) that evening I pulled in an extra $700. Up $950.
Spent quite a bit on drinks and dinners for our 4-some.
3rd day – bet the Hoyas to beat Ohio State – lost $100. Also lost $100 @ the Belagio and $200 @ the Golden Nugget. I layed 20 bets of $10 with my $200 and did not win a one. Worst luck ever. $600 of my $950 was gone!
3rd night – Everyone goes to bed but me. Hit the blackjack tables and started to run it up. HUGE! Up $1900. Cashed out and got a drink. Played one hand of 3 card poker and won another $150. Hit the Elvis slots to try and win the REALLY big one. But only won another $50. Hit a blackjack table for another $150 on one hand. Cashed out. An extra $2250 to take home! Walking up to the room… But….
This is where it goes from unbelieveable to bad to desparate… DON’T EVER DO WHAT I DID!!!!
“I’ll just play with the extra $250 and call it quits.” **Completely loaded (drunk) at this time.
I sit down and start winning. All the big bets I’m throwing are paying. All the small ones are only losing 1/2 the time. I turned the $250 into an extra $1500. As Louie Anderson said at his show we went to “What’s to stop me now!!!!” Up $3500. In Vegas! It’s 5am and I’m having the best time of my life. The players and I are telling jokes, laughing, high 5’s everywhere! Greedy and dumb here was actually after more! The drunk $500 bets I started to push quickly turned my $1500 into $0. So I turned to my wallet. And emptied it on 4 more bets….
Three days have passed and I still can’t eat breakfast. No more than 1/2 a lunch. And no dinner.
I know most people would never do this. But when you get up in Vegas or any casino to a point where it’s good for you ($1000 is just lovely for me)… remember to walk away or do something to safeguard yourself from losing all your money.
This was a fun read. Do I stand alone? I’ve been to Vegas 7 times. I’ve come out ahead every time. Here’s how…
I play games with good odds. Blackjack, Craps, and maybe single 0 roulette. I bet very small. I play $2-$5 tables. I bet the minimum every time (almost).
I play on average about 5 hours/day. I lose on average around $5/hour, but I get on average about 2 drinks/hour ($8 value). So if you’re like me and you like to gamble and drink then this is a very inexpensive way to have a good time.
I have no “gambling stress” at all “no regrets” and I feel like I’m coming out ahead every time.
The MOST I’ve ever lost in an entire trip is $175. My average losses per trip are under $100. The most I’ve ever won in a single trip…..as expected, I’ve never come out ahead on gambling. I’m not even trying to. I’m trying to lose, and I always do, but I lose a consistently very small amount. Once I only lost about $20.
P.S. I just got into poker (holdem). Now this game is awesome. The house has a huge advantage. I figure they take about $9/hour per person (average on $1/$2 blind table). However, if you’re smart enough to figure out if the table has some very bad players you can actually come out ahead.
I’ll tell you all you really need to know to win at poker. You need to be good enough at the game to know FOR SURE which players are very bad. By very bad, I mean they consistently play hands that are not in their favor.
I doubt anyone will ever read this far, but if you have thanks for listening. I appreciate it.
IS there anything wife and I have to do. Something we wouldnt do later. We do play Holdem some. She doesnt like BJ and I do.
Reading these posts should make everyone realize how casinos make so much money. Counting cards at blackjack…where? Slots? Taking out markers? If you think Hold’em has great odds you shouldn’t be playing with real players. People constantly confuse “I got lucky once or twice” with “I discovered something here”. Tip properly, set responsible limits for yourself, enjoy the free drinks and don’t confuse emotions with rationale.
Thanks for the tips. They just opened up the “Las Vegas Style” gambling tables here in South Florida at the Indian casino. I’m going to try my luck at blackjack first.
here’s the math… ( or my math )
how much to take to play, keeping in mind that you’ll using this entertainment only.
your hourly wage x hours on vacation / 2 = money to take.
i.e. 20(my hourly wage ) x 48 (2days & 2 nights) / 2 = $480
Enjoy.