Jack Bogle WSJ Interview Highlights (September 2016)

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wsj_bogleWhen Jack Bogle grants an interview, I sit down and take notes in case he drops something significant. Here is a link to his WSJ interview dated 9/2/2016 (paywall, use Google redirection if needed).

  • Bogle estimates 2% annualized returns over the next decade (he does not forecast past that).
  • Stay invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds at very low cost.
  • Don’t reach for yield. You just have to save more.
  • Don’t go to cash.
  • He’s fine with 5% of your portfolio in gold, if you like that.
  • He’s still sees no need for international stocks.
  • He’s not worried about too much money flowing into index funds.
  • Bogle predicts that in five years, Fidelity will be sold.

The interview is rather vague in a few areas. I am assuming that the 2% annual returns forecast applies to after-inflation returns of a 50% stock and 50% bond portfolio. This is based on Bogle’s October 2015 presentation which predicted 3% after-inflation returns for a 50/50 portfolio. Since then, stock markets are up and bond yields are down, so future expected returns are now even lower.

Another little nugget is a link to a previous WSJ interview from exactly 10 years ago – 9/2/2006. It provides some additional background to the initial creation of the first index fund for individual investors.

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Comments

  1. I read this interview yesterday in the WSJ as well. As you said, when Bogle talks, people should listen! A little depressing about his forecasted returns over the next decade though. It’s tough to get a good return these days. More reason to run a good PF blog I suppose and encourage people to be net worthy!

  2. I appreciate you taking the time to link to this. I hadn’t seen it, but it was well worth the read. Like many, Bogle is one of my heros.

  3. how to bypass the paywall ?

  4. Hmm…this is interesting. Despite the volatility events we’ve had including the flash crash last year and the lows we made in February of this year, Lots of $$ are out of the market. Returns have been decent. 2% annualized returns is pretty dismal. ETFs in some EM have performed well. Gold? Fed has it doing a dance. Bond yields are depressing to look at while equities have soared. I’m sure monetary policies have contributed to some of these. The resulting effect? I see ketchup.
    Thanks for sharing the article. I felt his op-ed in the NYT in 2009 was so on point.

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